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Unit costs drag on FQM

RESULTS: Despite an encouraging second-quarter performance, rising costs have undermined half-year results for Canadian miner First Quantum Minerals
August 2, 2012

In the early part of this year, earnings estimates for First Quantum Minerals (FQM) were trimmed due to weakening copper prices. But the Canadian miner managed to beat second-quarter consensus expectations by driving copper and gold sales volumes higher. FQM can be largely satisfied with its performance in the second quarter, but continued weakness within the global base metals complex means expectations for the full year remain subdued.

IC TIP: Hold at 1170p

Revenues rose by 9 per cent to $722m in the June quarter, as copper sales climbed 11 per cent to 72,711 tonnes on the comparable period in 2011. Second-quarter gold sales were up by a fifth, while nickel production at the Ravensthorpe mine in Australia was in line with start-up output in the previous quarter. In all, FQM delivered quarterly net profits of $142m, or 30¢ a share. While this was 9 per cent down on a fully diluted basis, it actually beat consensus estimates by 36 per cent.

Despite the improvements to both production and sales during the second quarter, profits at the half-year mark were held in check due to an increase in copper production costs of more than a fifth, coupled with a 9 per cent fall in realised prices. Cost of sales rose to $906m ($563m in 2011), which fed through to a 28 per cent decline in half-year net profits to $261m, if you exclude a $1.22bn one-off gain from a long-running dispute with ENRC in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Looking ahead, FQM maintained its full-year guidance for copper production of 270,000-290,000 tonnes, with cash costs estimated at $1.55 per pound – broadly in line with the first half. Following approvals in May, FQM will be progressing development work at its Sentinel copper project in Zambia, which is eventually expected to produce up to 300,000 tonnes a year. FQM has also earmarked $1.2bn-$1.4bn in capital expenditure, primarily to drive output at its flagship Kansanshi plant in Zambia.

Before these figures, JPMorgan Cazenove expected adjusted 2012 EPS of $1.37 ($1.18 in 2011).

FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS (FQM)
ORD PRICE:1,170pMARKET VALUE:£5.6bn
TOUCH:1,123-1,199p12-MONTH HIGH:1,717pLow: 778p
DIVIDEND YIELD:1.0%PE RATIO:5
NET ASSET VALUE:1,069¢NET CASH:$817m

Half-year to 30 JuneTurnover ($bn)Pre-tax profit ($bn)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (CA ¢)
20111.370.72845.33
20121.451.713126.03
% change+6+136+271+13

Ex-div: 27 Aug

Payment: 20 Sep

£1 = $1.56 £1 = C$1.56