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Melrose production decline continues

RESULTS: Melrose has revealed further production declines - leaving the proposed merger with Petroceltic looking like a smart long-term strategic move
August 29, 2012

These figures from oil and gas producer Melrose Resources were easily overshadowed by news earlier this month that Petroceltic International had made a recommended offer for the group. Billed as a merger, Petroceltic will offer 17.6 of its shares for each Melrose share, as well as a 4.7p special dividend - valuing Melrose's shares at 148.6p each.

IC TIP: Hold at 131p

Admittedly, there's no specific geographical overlap between the two companies - Petroceltic has early-stage development assets in Algeria, Italy and Kurdistan, while Melrose boasts a profitable production base in Egypt, Bulgaria and Romania. But analysts reckon that their combined assets are largely complementary and will create an independent entity with a regional focus on the north Africa, Mediterranean and Black Sea region.

Operationally, meanwhile, Melrose's first-half oil and gas output - 28,300 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) on a working interest basis - was in line with expectations and implies that the group will be able to meet its production target of 28,000 boepd. Still, that's down from 34,330 boepd in 2011 and 41,100 boepd in 2010.

Broker Macquarie Capital forecasts adjusted full-year EPS of 32¢ a share for 2012 (47¢ for 2011).

MELROSE RESOURCES (MRS)

ORD PRICE:131pMARKET VALUE:£150.3m
TOUCH:130-131p12-MONTH HIGH:165pLOW: 89p
DIVIDEND YIELD:2.7%PE RATIO:5
NET ASSET VALUE:339¢NET DEBT:68%

Half-year to 30 JunTurnover ($m)Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (p)
201115661.828.9nil
201212852.128.5nil
% change-18-16-1-

£1=$1.58