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Opinion

SEVEN DAYS: 7 September 2012

SEVEN DAYS: 7 September 2012
September 7, 2012
SEVEN DAYS: 7 September 2012

Out of luck?

Aussie peril

The so-called 'lucky country', Australia, may just be beginning to run out of that precious commodity. After several years of boom built on the back of buoyant demand for its commodity output from China, there are fears that the Australian economy could actually tip into recession next year as a result of the drying up of Chinese demand for iron ore in particular. Major players such as BHP Billiton and Fortesque Minerals have slashed megabucks expansion plans in response. Meanwhile, foreign buying of Australian government bonds has slipped to its lowest level for three years, suggesting weakening support for the Australian dollar.

 

De-construction

Data gloom

The UK construction industry registered its weakest new order figures for more than three years in August as activity in the sector dried up. The latest Purchasing managers' index for the sector fell to 49, below the 50 mark, which indicates expansion for the first time since June. One of the biggest concerns is the continued weakness in the housebuilding segment of the industry and the weak new order outlook suggests recovery remains some way off. In more positive news, UK manufacturing activity rebounded in August from 45 to 49.5, but remains in negative growth territory.

 

Battle lines

Race is on

US president Barack Obama officially accepted the nomination of his Democratic Party this week in Charlotte, North Carolina, a week after Mitt Romney fired the starting pistol on his run for the White House. Over the next nine weeks, the candidates will criss-cross the US trying to gee up disenchanted Americans. At this point, neither candidate has offered any radical suggestions for curing the ailments of the US economy. Recent research suggested equity investors would be wise to hope for an Obama victory given that markets, perhaps surprisingly, have performed better under Democrat presidents than Republicans over the past 112 years.

 

Right turn

Heathrow hint

David Cameron's first major cabinet reshuffle since the coalition came to power in 2010 saw the political make-up of the cabinet shift to the right and reopened the potential for an about-turn on Heathrow's controversial third runway. Mr Cameron replaced Transport Secretary and third runway opponent Justine Greening with John McLaughlin. An about-turn is unlikely in this parliament, but new Tory party chairman Grant Shapps has admitted that "all the options" for expanding airport capacity in the south-east need to be examined, opening the way for a possible manifesto pledge in 2015. Meanwhile, Jeremy Hunt's promotion to health secretary at Andrew Lansley's expense is expected to see an acceleration of NHS reform.

 

Added fizz

Drinker merger mooted

Two of the UK's biggest drinks brands, Britvic and AG Barr, are in talks about a possible merger. The proposed deal would see Britvic shareholders owning two-thirds of the enlarged entity and AG Barr's one-third. The mooted deal comes after a torrid few months for Britvic, in which problems with its new Fruit Shoot bottle led to a product recall and a hefty financial hit. Trading has also been dampened by poor weather. Barr has performed rather more resiliently, hence the proposal that its chief executive Roger White heads up the merged businesses.

 

BP battered

US attack

BP's hopes of an agreeable resolution to the US court case over the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 were dealt a blow this week when the US Department of Justice launched a stinging attack on the company's conduct leading up to the disaster. Government lawyers signalled their intention to go for the highest damages possible in a filing alleging the company had a "culture of corporate recklessness". They also detailed a string of examples which indicated "gross negligence and wilful misconduct".