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Bumper sales at Ted Baker

RESULT: Growth at clothing retailer Ted Baker - while still robust - has weakened and the group's costs are rising
October 4, 2012

Sales growth at upmarket clothing retailer Ted Baker (TED) has continued to bound ahead - although not at quite the pace seen last year - and so have profits. On an underlying basis, pre-tax profits rose by 10.4 per cent to £9.4m in the six-month period once you strip out a £1.6m exceptional charge reflecting the treatment of rents at the company's New York Fifth Avenue stores. However, costs are growing, too, and the hefty share price rating leaves the growth profile looking priced in.

IC TIP: Hold at 943p

In the six months to the end of August, UK and European retail sales rose 7.9 per cent to £74.7m - outstripping the 6.5 per cent growth in average square footage. But a similar rate of sales growth was achieved last year on a far smaller 1.7 per cent square footage increase and retail sales per square foot actually fell 2 per cent to £342. Similarly, UK wholesale sales grew 11.7 per cent to £21m - perfectly respectable, but not as impressive as last year's 26 per cent sales increase.

It was a similar story in the US, where the retail operation increased sales 53.3 per cent to $25.6m (£16m) - a slower pace than last year's 74 per cent sale hike. And while the US wholesale arm grew revenues by 37.8 per cent to $6.2m, sales there more than doubled a year earlier. Ted Baker's licence income - from partners in the Middle East, Asia and Australasia - rose 19 per cent in the period to £3.7m.

Administrative and distribution costs both increased by 17 per cent, reflecting support and expansion-related costs in the US and new international markets. Moreover, opening and refurbishing stores pushed capital expenditure up 57 per cent to £12.9m - that's expected to reach £18m for the full year. Add that to higher stock levels and net debt reached £19m, from a £1.8m net cash position at the February year-end.

Broker Espirito Santo expects full-year adjusted pre-tax profit of £30m and EPS of 50.9p, up from £27.1m and 47.1p, respectively, last year. For the 12 months to 31 January 2014, the broker is predicting adjusted pre-tax profits of £32.1m and EPS of 54.7p based on a rise in forecast revenues from £246m in the current financial year to £270m. On this basis, the full-year dividend of 23.4p increases to 25.3p in the 12 months to January 2013, rising to 27.2p in the year after.

TED BAKER (TED)

ORD PRICE:943pMARKET VALUE:£392m
TOUCH:936-950p12-MONTH HIGH:1,017pLOW: 633p
DIVIDEND YIELD:2.6%PE RATIO:23
NET ASSET VALUE: 205pNET DEBT:22%

Half-year to 11 AugTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20111038.4714.87.15
20121197.7613.97.90
% change+16-8-6+10

Ex-div: 17 Oct

Payment: 23 Nov