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Is Cookson the canary in the coal mine?

Cookson's woes could serve as a warning to others
October 10, 2012

Peers won't go public with their seasonal updates until next month, but clearly Cookson felt compelled to jump the gun. Investors are getting twitchy, too, and the impending US reporting season is not helping to calm nerves.

The usual flurry of third-quarter results begins in earnest next week and General Electric sticks its head above the parapet on Friday. Just a fortnight ago, chief executive Jeff Immelt told investors he thinks the industrial side is "gaining momentum" and increased organic industrial revenue growth forecasts for this year to 10 per cent. We'll see.

Back in the UK, Cookson has already taken the pain and James Tetley, an analyst at N+1 Singer, thinks Bodycote is vulnerable, too. "In July, both firms talked of weakness in Europe during the first half, but reasonably robust growth elsewhere, particularly in North America and emerging markets," he says. "That optimism seems to have ebbed away."

Indeed, 57 per cent of Bodycote's first-half sales were from automotive and general industrials, much of that from Europe. True, the company boasts a solid aerospace business, but its shares have risen nearly a quarter since those results and sluggish growth elsewhere will hurt.

"Now, Europe is probably weaker than expected and there are signs that the US is slowing, so it's difficult to see where growth is going to come from in 2013," warns Mr Tetley.

The concern is that the big heavy truck, mining and general industrial companies have already begun rebasing their expectations for next year. "There may be an element of destocking in here, but it is currently too difficult to unpick," believes Mr Tetley. This worry was illustrated on Wednesday when US diesels engines maker Cummins warned on revenues for this year, cutting guidance by $1bn to $17bn due to delays in capital spending plans by customers.