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Next week's economics: Oct 29-Nov 2

Next week's economics: Oct 29-Nov 2
October 26, 2012
Next week's economics: Oct 29-Nov 2

We'll see one reason for such low demand in other numbers. Thursday's purchasing managers' survey is expected to show that manufacturing output is falling, due to weak export orders - which means companies don't need to borrow to expand.

Euro area figures will show why export orders are weak. Official figures on Wednesday could show that unemployment in the region has risen to 18.2 million, or 11.5 per cent of the workforce. And purchasing managers surveys on Friday will show that manufacturing is still in recession. The recession is especially acute in Spain, where Wednesday's figures are likely to show a big fall in GDP.

The euro area's recession isn't just hitting the UK, though. It's also hitting far eastern exporters. Japanese figures on Tuesday could show a fourth successive monthly fall in industrial production, and Thursday's purchasing managers surveys could show that Chinese industrial production is falling.

However, there could be brighter news in the US. The Institute for Supply Management is expected to report that manufacturing activity is growing, albeit slightly; Friday's employment report could show a rise in jobs of around 150,000; and the S&P/Case-Shiller index of house prices could post a fourth successive rise on Tuesday. In response to all this, consumer confidence - reported on Tuesday by the Conference Board - might show another rise, after last month's big jump, though it will stay low by historic standards. Such improved confidence is not mere talk. Monday's official numbers could show that personal spending is rising faster than incomes and the savings rate is dropping - consistent with households becoming more optimistic.

UK retailers might also give us some good news. If sales come up to retailers' expectations, the CBI will report an increase in their annual growth on Tuesday. This would be consistent with rising employment and a relief of the squeeze on real wages improving the backdrop for spending.