The UK is sharing in this upswing; purchasing managers could report a third successive monthly rise in manufacturing activity.
The exception, of course, will be the euro area. Even here, however, there might be some comfort, as purchasing managers report that the pace of decline in output is slowing. This would be consistent with figures released on Wednesday by the ECB, which could show that the rate of decline in bank lending to the private sector is moderating.
Unfortunately, this upturn is coming from a low base. Official figures in the week are expected to confirm early estimates that GDP fell in Q4 in both the US and UK. The second estimate of the latter will, though contain new news. It'll give us the expenditure breakdown of GDP - most components are likely to be weak - and the income breakdown. This could show that the share of labour incomes is rising, to the detriment of the profit share, thanks to increased numbers in work.
Despite the growth in employment, news about the UK consumer could be mixed. Research group GfK could report on Thursday that consumer confidence is edging up - possibly to its second-highest level in almost two years - and the Bank of England could report on Friday that mortgage lending, and perhaps even consumer credit are both rising. This will be evidence that the Funding for Lending Scheme is working to get credit flowing. However, if the CBI's report on retail sales on Tuesday confirms retailers' expectations, it'll show that high street spending was weak this month. This will remind us that the retail sector still faces big problems - not least of which is that falling real wages are reducing many consumers' incomes.
There's another big obstacle to recovery, which Friday's Bank of England data are likely to highlight - that non-financial firms are still building up cash balances and paying down debt. This will remind us that companies are still reluctant to invest in real assets.
