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Asian Citrus ripe for a rerating

RESULT: A replanting programme, bad weather and Chinese wage inflation squeezed half-year profits for Asian Citrus Holdings, but with earnings set to grow strongly next year the shares are ripe for a rerating.
February 26, 2013

A replanting programme, bad weather and Chinese wage inflation put the squeeze on revenues and margins for Asian Citrus Holdings (ACHL) at the half-year mark, although a tasty special dividend would have made the news a little more palatable for shareholders.

IC TIP: Buy at 31p

Asian Citrus reported a 6 per cent decline in orange production, primarily due to the replanting programme at the Hepu plantation although this should facilitate a steady rise in tonnage over coming years. Turnover from orange sales fell by 6.8 per cent to ¥600m (£63.5m), while lower prices for pineapple concentrate reduced turnover at the Beihai juice business by 27 per cent to ¥290m.

Gross margins on orange sales fell by almost 10 percentage points to 35.1 per cent. This was partly due to persistent rainfall through April to August, which simply washed away costly pesticides and fertilisers that, then, had to be replaced. This increased unit costs at the Hepu and Xinfeng plantations by 31 & 12 per cent, respectively. Wage costs at the plantations increased by 29 per cent to ¥41.9m. This fed through into a 43 per cent fall in cash profits to ¥272m, while net earnings were hit by a ¥23m fair value impairment, against a gain of ¥100m gain in 2011.

Kim Eng (HK) expects flat full-year EPS of ¥0.51, rising to ¥0.61 in 2013/14.

ASIAN CITRUS HOLDINGS (ACHL)
ORD PRICE:29.5pMARKET VALUE:£362m
TOUCH:29-30p12-MONTH HIGH:49pLOW: 26p
DIVIDEND YIELD:5.7%PE RATIO:6
NET ASSET VALUE: ¥6.71*NET CASH: ¥1.34bn

Half-year to 31 DecTurnover (¥bn)Pre-tax profit (¥m)Earnings per share (sen)Dividend per share (sen)
20111.0440532.73**
20120.8921817.43**
% change-14-46-47-

Ex-div:14 Mar

Payment:12 Apr

£1 = ¥9.454 - ¥1 = 100 sen *Includes intangible assets of ¥1.23bn, or 100 sen a share **Excludes a special dividend of 2 sen