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Clarkson navigates stormy seas

RESULTS: Shipping is notoriously cyclical, but Clarkson has seen it all before and is currently winning market share - which is why we like the shares
March 7, 2013

One of the worst shipping markets since the mid-1980s sunk profits at broker Clarkson (CKN) by over a third in 2012. It is, however, winning market share and volumes are up by double digits almost everywhere. Any increase in freight rates will boost commissions and quickly hit the bottom line, although 2013 hasn't started well.

IC TIP: Buy at 1432p

Broking revenue fell 12 per cent last year to $232m (£154m) and divisional profit slumped 30 per cent to £25.2m. Worries over the US fiscal cliff and euro crisis damaged dry bulk seaborne trade, and drought in the US hit grain volumes. Clarkson's finance arm struggled, too, losing almost £10m due to start-up costs and a "paucity of deals". But finance director Jeff Woyda sees light at the end of the tunnel. A record number of ships were scrapped in 2012 and demolition exceeded new tonnage for the first time in a decade, which should help correct chronic overcapacity. Revenue from futures broking is building momentum and slashing costs on the banking side, where Clarkson acts as a middle man, is seeing "significant" client interest. Elsewhere, a first full-year's contribution from EnShip more than doubled profits from port services to £4.2m. Research profits rose sharply, too.

Broker Panmure Gordon has trimmed forecasts and now expects adjusted pre-tax profit of £22.5m 2013 and adjusted EPS of 87.7p (from £20.4m and 76.8p in 2012).

CLARKSON (CKN)

ORD PRICE:1,432pMARKET VALUE:£272.1m
TOUCH:1,432-1,435p12-MONTH HIGH:1,515pLOW:   1,135p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.6%PE RATIO:16
NET ASSET VALUE 663p*NET CASH:£75.2m

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
200825018.241.942.0
200917722.590.043.0
201020332.412547.0
201119535.413450.0
201217623.387.251.0
% change-10-34-35+2

Ex-div: 22 May

Payment: 7 Jun

*Includes intangible assets of £39.8m, or 209p a share