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Opinion

Next week's economics: 25-29 March

Next week's economics: 25-29 March
March 22, 2013
Next week's economics: 25-29 March

As for why companies are investing so little, we will get a clue in Thursday's survey of credit conditions by the Bank of England. This could show that the problem for most companies is not so much a lack of availability of credit but weak demand for it - due to uncertainty and a lack of profitable investment opportunities.

It's not just companies that are loath to spend, however. Tuesday's CBI survey is likely to show that consumers are too, with retail sales this month only slightly up on a year ago. One reason for this will be evident in GfK's survey released on Thursday. It could show that although consumer confidence has risen a little recently, it is still depressed by historic standards.

Other news on Thursday will remind us that a lack of credit growth is not just a UK problem. The ECB is expected to report that bank lending to the euro area's private sector is still falling.

However, news elsewhere should be rather better. Tuesday's figures should confirm that the US housing market is recovering quite strongly, with the S&P/Case-Shiller index showing house price inflation picking up. And while new home sales might show a fall in February after January's big rise, they should be some 15 per cent up on a year ago.

This recovery is helping the wider economy. Tuesday's numbers could show a sixth successive monthly rise in durable goods orders - consistent with modest expansion in manufacturing. And Friday's figures could show another small monthly increase in consumer spending.

It's not just the US that's enjoying a little growth, though. Thursday's industrial production numbers from Japan could show a third successive monthly rise in output, consistent with the country pulling out of recession.