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Ithaca must restore confidence

RESULTS: North Sea oil junior Ithaca Energy must deliver on production promises if it is to recover lost ground
March 26, 2013

Ithaca Energy's (IAE) shares have yet to fully recover from their hefty slide nearly a year ago when the company opted to walk away from takeover talks with a potential suitor. Things were starting to look up after the Athena oilfield successfully came online in June, but the shares recently slipped again following Ithaca's announcement last month that it will acquire North Sea oil peer Valiant Petroleum (VPP) in a friendly $459m (£304m) deal.

IC TIP: Buy at 113p

The market seems discouraged by the high price being paid based on proven and probable (2P) reserves - $24.2 a barrel. That's above the typical range of between $10 and $20 a barrel for North Sea assets. But this metric doesn't to the deal justice - not only does the acquisition come with a $500m tax allowance and $23m tax refund but, based on Valiant's current production rates, the deal could pay for itself from operating cash flow in less than two years.

Add to this the group's Greater Stella Area development - where first oil is expected in mid-2014 - plus continued production growth from Athena, and Ithaca stands to have a solid production base of 25,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 18 months' time. That's up from 5,862 boepd in 2012.

ITHACA ENERGY (IAE)

ORD PRICE:113pMARKET VALUE:£294m
TOUCH:112-114p12-MONTH HIGH:212pLOW: 91p
DIVIDEND YIELD:NILPE RATIO:5
NET ASSET VALUE:233¢NET CASH:$31.4m

Year to 31 DecTurnover ($m)Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (p)
20082.00-30.0-23.0nil
20091018.005.00nil
201013238.027.0nil
201112937.114.0nil
201217029.236.0nil
% change+32-21+157-

£1=$1.51