The strongest indicator will be the NIESR's estimate of GDP in March. This could show that real GDP fell in the first quarter (Q1), implying that there was indeed a triple dip - a third recession in quick succession. However, the NIESR's estimate is not always a strong guide to the first official estimate of GDP, which itself is subject to later revisions.
In truth, though, it doesn't much matter whether GDP fell or not in Q1. Obsessing about a tenth of a percentage point in noisy and unreliable data is silly statistical fetishism. The broader picture is that the economy is struggling, and this should be evident from official manufacturing output data on Tuesday. Although these are expected to show a rise in output after January's surprise fall, it’s likely they'll show that production was weaker in the two months together than it was in Q4.
Trade figures the same day will show one reason for this; net exports are contributing almost nothing to growth. This isn't simply because of the recession in the euro area; last month's figures showed that exports to the non-EU fell year on year too, with a sharp drop in exports to the US.
News about the personal sector, however, could be more mixed. If the British Retail Consortium’s report corroborates the CBI's early estimate, it will show that retail sales were weak in March. However, this will follow a strong February, and might be due in part to the awful weather. And the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors could report a slight strengthening in the housing market, with sales picking up. Prices, however, are likely to be more or less flat.
Overseas, the story will be the same - of recession in the eurozone and growth in the US.
Friday’s official figures are expected to show that industrial production was flat in the euro area in February, and almost 3 per cent down year on year. This would put the economy on course for a drop in output in Q1.
In the US, though, retail sales could post another small rise in March, implying growth in nominal terms of 1.5 per cent in the quarter. This would be consistent with economists' estimates that the overall real economy grew at an annualised rate of around 2.5 per cent in the quarter.
