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Opinion

Don't fear deflation

Don't fear deflation
April 26, 2013
Don't fear deflation

There is a clear logic to this point of view - the massive monetary expansion we have witnessed in the US and UK has not unleashed the inflationary forces many expected; commodity prices have fallen sharply from recent peaks; and wage growth remains muted in western economies, as does economic growth, in spite of the massive stimulus thrown at it. Take that away, and economies could suffer a sharp contraction, it is said.

As Charles Stanley's director of research, Jeremy Batstone-Carr points out, that does seem to be the current fear of policymakers, hence the continuation of such ultra-easy monetary policy – or in the case of Japan, the only major economy to have actually experienced sustained deflation in recent years, "extreme QE".

Japan, of course, has suffered 20 years of economic stagnation after property and stock market bubbles burst there in 1991 - its lost two-decades are frequently held up as the example of exactly what we in the west should try to avoid at all costs.

However, some, like respected economic journalist Eamonn Fingleton - notable for challenging the orthodoxy - suggest that Japan's plight has not been quite the horror story commonly portrayed, and that in many respects this period has not been entirely unpleasant for many Japanese people. In fact, Japanese living standards have remained high throughout, and are notably higher than those in the West.

He points to continued modernisation of infrastructure, improving healthcare, and - at 4.2 per cent - an unemployment rate half that of the US. Economists also note that its GDP has been measured more conservatively than elsewhere, and that while on paper its borrowings are the highest in the developed world, this is largely held by its own people, and far outweighed by the money it's owed by foreign governments.

What's more, the similarities that really matter aren't being tackled. One probable cause of Japan's twenty year 'slump' was the failure of its banks to recognise bad loans as its property market headed south, constraining their subsequent ability to lend. Sound familiar?

In the meantime, I still think we ought to be worried about inflation. UK inflation - which is what most of you need to worry about - remains above target. And make no mistake, QE is designed to create inflation not to stimulate growth but to erode government debt, and it will come. "Inflation is a slow burning fuse. It may smoulder for a few years before breaking out into a full blaze," says Mr Batstone-Carr ominously. When it does - and our living standards take another turn for the worse - we may be begging for some Rising Sun style deflation.