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The Aim 100: 30 to 21

Numbers 30 to 21 of our top 100 Aim companies
April 26, 2013

30. Faroe Petroleum

Faroe Petroleum (FPM) provides a classic example of the type of small, nimble explorer that has made such a big contribution to the revitalisation of our home-grown oil and gas industry. This UK independent focuses principally on exploration, appraisal and production opportunities in the Atlantic Margin, the North Sea and Norway.

Admittedly, last year's exploration programme didn't follow on from Faroe's previous successes - the company has just announced that the Darwin exploration well in the Norwegian Barents Sea has had to be plugged and abandoned. Nevertheless, shareholders can realistically hope for a one-in-three success ratio where these types of prospects are concerned, and they've got a fully-funded drilling programme to look forward to later this year, with three exploration and two appraisal wells, including Solberg (Norway) for the recent Rodriguez discovery.

Despite the recent exploration set-backs, Faroe expects that production from non-operated interests in Norway and the UK North Sea should yield between 7,000 and 9,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2013, which, even at the lower level, would equate to a 180 per cent hike in production since 2011. The share price has pulled back as a result of the news about Darwin, but is still well in advance of our long-term speculative buy call - which we reiterate. Buy. MR

 

Faroe Petroleum has a fully funded drilling programme in place.

 

29. Secure Trust Bank

Secure Trust Bank (STB) is one of a growing band of financial groups stepping in to provide the sort of financing that high street banks used to provide. And while the bank has been around for a long time, it was only in November 2011 that it floated on the Alternative Investment Market, although it is still 70.7 per cent owned by Arbuthnot Banking.

Secure Trust Bank has the luxury of not having to rely on wholesale finance because the lending side is financed through customer deposits. This may be more expensive at present due to the fact that wholesale funds are actually cheaper than the rates on offer to retail depositors, but the source of funds is unlikely to dry up as wholesale finance did after the financial crash. And business has been brisk - the loan book all but doubled last year, despite which impairment levels remain low.

This has translated into a sharp rise in profits - nearly threefold in 2012. This is good news for shareholders but, not surprisingly, the shares are tightly held and the price has jumped 70 per cent in the last year alone. So, trading on 12 times forecast EPS, the shares are not overly cheap, and may have risen far enough for now. Hold. JC

 

28. Sierra Rutile

After an eight-fold share price rise in 2011 and 2012 from 10p to 80p, shares in minerals sands miner Sierra Rutile (SRX) finally dipped toward the tail end of last year as the red-hot market for ilmenite and rutile softened. The company's shares can now be had for 61p apiece, but does that constitute a bargain?

Recent director deals suggest it is. Several Sierra Rutile directors saw the price decline as a buying opportunity earlier this year. Chairman Jan Castro has been the biggest buyer, adding 768,750 shares at prices between 49.8p and 60p. Directors Mike Brown, Richard Lister and Michael Barton all made smaller purchases around the same prices.

True, the market for mineral sands is relatively small and niche, but there are hefty profits to be made should prices hold up. Sierra Rutile continues to grow production from its main operation in Sierra Leone and recently commissioned the Lanti dry mining project, where it is now successfully ramping up production. The company will thereafter look to develop its potentially lucrative Gangama dry mining project, for which a feasibility study is expected in the second quarter of 2013. It also plans to implement a dividend policy once the timing of the Gangama project development is determined.

This growth play comes with its fair share of risks, but the positive economics of Sierra Rutile's Gangama project are so impressive that the shares easily warrant a speculative buy. MA

 

27. Blinkx

Spun out of Mike Lynch's Autonomy in 2007, Blinkx (BLNX) is the world's largest video search engine. It has over 35m of searchable video used by national broadcasters and the big commercial media companies, powers video search for AOL and ASK.com, and has teamed up with Samsung and Sony as part of a drive into mobile video and Connected TV.

Blinkx is clearly profiting from a spending surge on internet video advertising. A spike during the US presidential elections and London Olympics resulted in the company enjoying an "exceptional" first half. That momentum spilled over into the third quarter, and full-year revenue is now tipped to come in at $180m-$185m, about 11 per cent better than expected and over 60 per cent higher than last year. Buying Burst Media and PVMG also gives Blinkx access to another 3,500 publishers of content and tens of millions of consumers linked to potential advertisers by its own search engine.

Broker Canaccord Genuity estimates adjusted EPS grew more than 21 per cent in the 12 months to March 2013 and predicts growth of well over 30 per cent in each of the following two years. That easily justifies a forward PE ratio of 21 and Blinkx should narrow the substantial discount to peers such as Google, Yahoo and Millennial Media. Buy. LW

 

26. Highland Gold

Russian gold miner Highland Gold (HGM) may be cheaply rated on just five times trailing 12-month earnings, but that's par for the course for Highland and we see no reason to buy the company's shares now. That's because a wobbling gold price, rising operating costs, deteriorating ore grades and the winding down of Highland's main MNV gold mine in 2016 look likely to push down profits going forward. Russian political risk is always a concern, too, although Highland's financial backers are very well connected - the largest minority shareholder is Chelsea football club billionaire owner Roman Abramovich.

That said, Highland is snapping up development assets throughout Russia in an effort to improve its growth profile. But that in turn is putting pressure on the company's balance sheet, and increasing its leverage at a time when other miners are doing the opposite.

All in all, we see few immediate catalysts that would generate a strong re-rating other than a gold bull market. So, until we see an indication of that returning, Highland's shares are a sell, see the recent results coverage. MA

 

25. Nanoco

Making nanoparticles, so-called 'quantum dots', could one day make Nanoco Group (NANO) a fortune. Investors who took our advice and bought the shares in December for just 87p already have. Within two months they had hit 183p, although a pull-back since we advised taking profits provides another chance to buy in.

Nanoco is the only company currently capable of producing large quantities of these semiconductor material particles without using harmful heavy metals such as cadmium. They use less power than other semiconductor technologies, yet remain capable of producing brighter images and better colour on video displays. That's why they are tipped to transform television and computer screens, smartphones, solar panels and the world of medicine.

Multi-national Dow Chemical recognised the potential and signed a global licensing deal with Nanoco in January. Talks with the big electronic and lighting manufacturers are already under way and production will rocket from 60kg to 1,000kg by the middle of next year. Of course, such a rapid ramp-up in production is vulnerable to delays, but the massive potential of Nanoco's technology and likelihood of lucrative deals with big-name manufacturers such as Samsung and LG in the months ahead is too good to miss. Speculative buy at 158p. LW

 

24. Nichols

Many consumers will have heard of Sunkist or seen the Levi Roots soft drinks range on the shelves of supermarkets. But what they probably don't know is that a little company called Nichols (NICL) is the business behind these products. With a market capitalisation of £331m, Nichols supplies soft drinks to the retail, wholesale, catering, licensed, and leisure industries in the UK and abroad. The stills and carbonates drinks come under the Vimto, Sunkist and Panda names, while the company also supplies cold soft drinks on draught under the Cabana and Ben Shaws brands to leisure outlets, such as pubs.

Against a tough economic backdrop, Nichols increased UK sales last year, helped by strong performance from a new line of zero-calorie drinks for Weight Watchers. But key to recent and future growth is its international business. Nichols exports to places such as the Middle East, Africa, China and Europe, and in the year to 31 December international sales grew 8 per cent to £22.7m. In Africa, where Nichols sells to more than 28 countries, sales rose by 22 per cent and in Europe by 24 per cent.

The company has good cost control, which means it can protect margins against higher raw material costs and this year distribution agreements in Africa will be key to success. With net cash in the bank, there are rumours that acquisitions could be on the horizon, too. Admittedly, the shares are trading on a punchy 22 times earnings, but that’s a price worth paying for Nichols' growth prospects and rising dividend. Buy. JB

 

23. Xcite Energy

Aberdeen-based Xcite Energy (XEL) is a 'heavy oil' appraisal and development company, with interests in six blocks in the UK North Sea. Among these prospects, it is Xcite's licences within the Bentley field that have attracted most interest after testing during the third quarter of 2012 significantly de-risked the development of the field through extensive data on flow rates, water ingress and reservoir characteristics. It has subsequently been announced that Bentley contains proven and probable (2P) reserves of 250m barrels - more than double the 116m barrel estimate produced in February 2012. At a median production rate, Xcite anticipates 45,000 barrels a day in the first phase development, increasing to approximately 57,000 barrels during the second phase.

Despite some early funding anxieties, the increase in the 2P estimate should enhance Xcite's ability to increase its borrowing capacity and the company is now on the look-out for farm-in partners to help develop the field. The company expects a total development cost of $1bn, which it is confident of recouping at the field through a range of enhanced oil recovery techniques. We'd await updates on the development plans before buying, though. Hold. MR

 

22. Archipelago Resources

The clamour for gold has quieted down ever since the US Federal Reserve launched an underwhelming third stimulus package last September. The price of bullion has consequently fallen from a high of $1,800 (£1,200) an ounce to its present level around $1,400. As a result, gold miners have been sold off by the market and shares in Indonesia-focused Archipelago Resources (AR.) are no exception.

All of which means that, at 52p a share, Archipelago's shares trade on just four times forecast earnings for 2013 and well below broker Westhouse Securities' estimate of 75p worth of underlying value assuming a long-term gold price of $1,250 to $1,600 in the current year.

We think that's too low, considering Archipelago should churn out about 160,000 ounces of gold a year for at least the next six years at industry-low net cash costs of between $620 and $680 an ounce. The company put in a strong operational performance in 2012, its first full year of production, by meeting guidance at 139,012 ounces at cash costs of $635 an ounce.

Granted, we have our worries about the gold price continuing to fall, which would further hit sentiment. But Archipelago remains one of our top picks for the sector considering its exceptionally low cost base. Buy. MA

 

21. Daisy

A cocktail of "difficult macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds" has hampered Daisy Group (DAY) in recent years, although the telecoms provider is showing signs of life and is on course to hit City forecasts. Analysts think demand for its phone systems, broadband and web hosting services from companies such as Moss Bros and Trinity Mirror will generate annual revenue of up to £354m and adjusted cash profit of almost £57m.

True, half a dozen investors own three-quarters of the share capital - including fellow Aim resident Oakley Capital - but a forward PE ratio of nine compares favourably with nearest rival Alternative Networks on 14 times forward earnings. Cash flow is expected to be way ahead of market expectations, too, and with a renegotiated £200m loan facility, Daisy has enough clout to make further acquisitions and bankroll a maiden dividend of 4p a share. Expect confirmation alongside results on 18 June and a commitment to grow the payout by 15 per cent for the next two years. Buy. LW