Indicators point to the economy weakening. Factory orders fell by 4 per cent in March. Sales of cars and light trucks in April were 2.6 per cent below their average first-quarter level. The Institute of Supply Management has reported a slowdown in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity, with the latter growing at its slowest rate since July. And official figures show that export volumes in March were 1.5 per cent down on the previous year. Although imports fell by more - implying that net trade has added to GDP growth - Mr Dumas believes this reflects a cut in inventories and falling domestic demand.
"The economy has stalled," says Chris Iggo at Axa Investment Managers.
The one bright spot is that employment is growing: official figures show that there were 133,000 more non-farm jobs in April than economists expected. But the length of the average working week fell last month - suggesting that many firms are suffering weak demand - and Mr Dumas believes that employment is a lagging indicator, responding to the strength of the economy in past months, rather than a portent of future strength.
"US growth seems to be slowing," says James Butterfill at Coutts. "The Fed might increase its quantitative easing programme."
Most economists agree that the economy is slowing down, but the majority also expect the US to escape recession. A recent survey found that forecasters expect 1.8 per cent annualised growth in the second quarter, after 2.5 per cent in the first quarter.
One reason for this optimism is that households might spend some of the money they've made from rising house and share prices. In the past 12 months, $2.5 trillion has been added to the stock market, and house prices in the US's 20 largest cities have risen by 9.3 per cent. This matters because research led by Yale University's Robert Shiller has found large wealth effects - he has estimated that a 10 per cent rise in house prices eventually raises consumer spending by 1 per cent.
But an economy which is dependent for growth upon rising asset prices caused by cheap money cannot be said to be an entirely healthy one.
