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Challenges remain for Lonmin

RESULTS: After last year's industrial unrest, South African platinum producer Lonmin has delivered an encouraging first-half performance - but challenges remain
May 13, 2013

Following last year's industrial unrest at its South African platinum operations, Lonmin's (LMI) half-year figures beat analysts' expectations. Indeed, a $90m (£58.4m) first-half operating profit marked a robust improvement on 2012's $702m full-year loss - when most strike-related costs hit. It was also well ahead of 2012's $14m first-half operating profit. That said, mid-year wage talks with unions could prove challenging.

IC TIP: Hold at 294p

Operationally, production of platinum concentrate - at 366,059 ounces (oz) - was in line with Lonmin's renewal plan and management boosted full-year production guidance by 3 per cent to at least 700,000 oz. First-half sales rose 2.4 per cent to 326,142 oz, too, and - despite recently reported smelter outages - expected sales guidance for 2013 was maintained at 660,000 oz. Moreover, a relatively modest 5.8 per cent unit cost increase enabled Lonmin to reduce its full-year unit cost growth estimate from 10 per cent to below 8 per cent - against a five-year annual industry average of 14 per cent. Expected deficits in global platinum markets over the next few years leave prospects looking more favourable, too - although physical inventories could take another year to clear.

UBS expects adjusted full-year EPS of 7.72¢ (from 3.94¢ in 2012).

LONMIN (LMI)
ORD PRICE:294pMARKET VALUE:£1.7bn
TOUCH:294-295p12-MONTH HIGH:475pLOW: 227p
DIVIDEND YIELD:nilPE RATIO:na
NET ASSET VALUE:582¢NET CASH:$194m

Half-year to 31 MarchTurnover ($m)Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (¢)
201275118-6.3nil
20137355413.3nil
% change-2200--
£1=$1.54