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Falling metals prices challenge Vedanta

RESULTS: Acquiring Cairn India's oil and gas assets in 2011 has given Vedanta a boost - but falling metals prices remain a worry
May 16, 2013

The oil and gas assets acquired from Cairn India in 2011 enabled Vedanta Resources (VED) to boost full-year revenues - despite declining commodity prices across the metals complex. But a ban on mining and iron ore exports in the Indian states of Karnataka and Goa have hit its operations there.

IC TIP: Hold at 1282p

In fact, the mining ban put a $485m (£319m) dent in Vedanta's operating profit, although group operating profit still ticked up 5 per cent to $2.51bn. The lifting of restrictions in Karnataka means that Vedanta is confident of resuming mining there next month, although the ban in Goa remains dependent on a resolution through the courts.

In fact, only Vedanta's oil and gas, power and aluminium businesses increased earnings in the year. The oil and gas segment in particular has grown in importance and now generates 40 per cent of profits - a contribution that's second only to the zinc business, which accounts for 46 per cent of the total. Copper margins, meanwhile, have continued to contract, reflecting a 7 per cent price fall - so, even though copper generates 38 per cent of group revenues, the business managed only a modest $210m operating profit. In aggregate, Vedanta estimates that falling commodity prices reduced profit by $519m, although this was offset by a $308m gain from a combination of increased production volumes, cost reductions and favourable currency movements.

Morgan Stanley expects adjusted EPS of 237¢ (from 137¢ in 2012).

VEDANTA RESOURCES (VED)
ORD PRICE:1,282pMARKET VALUE:£3.4bn
TOUCH:1,281-1,284p12-MONTH HIGH:1,327pLOW: 821p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3%PE RATIO:34
NET ASSET VALUE:1,650¢NET DEBT:46%

Year to 31 MarTurnover ($bn)Pre-tax profit ($bn)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (¢)
20096.601.1876.041.5
20107.901.8422045.0
201111.42.6828352.5
201214.01.7521.955.0
201315.01.7157.758.0
% change+7-2+163+5

Ex-div: 10 Jul

Payment: 8 Aug

£1=$1.52