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Opinion

Next week's economics: 27-31 May

Next week's economics: 27-31 May
May 24, 2013
Next week's economics: 27-31 May

We might, though, see signs of increased borrowing by households, with mortgage approvals and consumer credit both rising. The latter, however, might reflect households borrowing to tide themselves over during a squeeze on incomes rather than an increase in confidence. Indeed, GfK is likely to report on Thursday that consumer sentiment is still very depressed by long-term standards, and has barely improved at all in the last two years. This would be consistent with Wednesday's survey by the CBI, which could show that retail sales were weak in May.

In the eurozone, we might see a glimmer of hope. Wednesday's money stock data will cast light on two questions: is bank lending rising? And is consumer confidence in banks returning? Last month's data gave positive answers to both, with increases in credit to the private sector in March and an increase in longer-term deposits. Corroboration of this would fuel hopes that the worst of the crisis is over.

In the US, the most striking news could come on Tuesday, when S&P reports that house prices have risen by around 9.5 per cent in the last 12 months, the fastest annual increase since 2006.

However, figures the same day are likely to show that although consumer confidence has risen recently, it is still low by long-term standards. One reason for this could be that house prices are still some 27 per cent below 2006's peak. Another reason is that incomes are growing slowly, due to low wage growth. This should be evident in Friday's numbers which are likely to show only modest growth in both incomes and spending.

In this light, markets might shrug off one piece of good news. The second estimate of first-quarter GDP could see growth revised up from the 2.5 per cent initial estimate. However, with everyone expecting the economy to slow down in the current quarter - and perhaps not grow at all - this won't cause much rejoicing.