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Betfair set fair

RESULT: Earnings quality is improving and new products are coming on stream, but the rating fairly reflects the improving prospects for the betting exchange operator
June 27, 2013

Headline figures for betting exchange operator Betfair (BET) were distorted by impairment and restructuring costs but, even after adding these back, underlying pre-tax profits were still down 27 per cent to £38m. Part of this reflected regulatory developments that prompted the group to cease operations in Greece, Germany and Cyprus together with a partial exit from Spain. However, a new management team, projected annual cost savings of £30m, entry into new markets and growth in newly launched products are expected to significantly boost profits this year. In fact, analysts at broker Peel Hunt expect adjusted pre-tax profits to rise to £51.9m to produce EPS of 41.4p (from 31.2p in 2013).

IC TIP: Hold at 822p

Revenues held up pretty well last year, helped by the launch of Sportsbook in February, a system designed to attract gamblers in the recreational segment of the market. Unlike Betfair's core betting exchange, where bets placed are offset against counterparties with an opposing view and where the company earns a commission, Sportsbook acts as a principal in each transaction. So the potential rewards are much greater, but so are the risks of losing. Betfair has built in bigger margins and other techniques to minimise risk.

Moreover, management has moved to improve the quality of earnings by reducing its presence in countries with insufficient regulatory visibility. While this will hold back growth in the short term, it will improve earnings quality over the longer term.

BETFAIR (BET)
ORD PRICE:822pMARKET VALUE:£858m
TOUCH:821-824p12-MONTH HIGH:931pLOW: 644p
DIVIDEND YIELD:1.6%PE RATIO:na
NET ASSET VALUE:126p*NET CASH:£168m

Year to 30 AprTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
201034117.814.4nil
201139326.622.65.9
201238954.245.410.2
2013387-49.4-44.413.0
% change---+27

Ex-div: 4 Sep

Payment: 2 Oct

*Includes intangible assets of £54.6m, or 52p a share