Several years covering the retail sector, meanwhile, taught me that weather often provides a useful scapegoat for errant merchandisers. I've heard "it's too wet/cold/hot" regularly trotted out over the years as reasons why retailers have missed their numbers, but my experience suggests that those that turn to this excuse often reveal more fundamental problems later down the line. And very rarely do you hear any suggesting they've got lucky with the weather; at such point having a few extra barbeques in stock invariably becomes inspired range buying.
At least the pub companies have the decency to recognise that the financial boost they've felt from the hot weather has been somewhat unexpected, which has left analysts scrabbling to upgrade their numbers for this year. But as we argue in this week's sector focus, it's not in itself a reason to buy their shares – what matters to investors is how they've been shaping their businesses for the long haul, including the many more gloomy months throughout which revellers will retreat indoors once again. My inclination - and the position of more sensible managers - is that trading peaks and troughs in weather-affected businesses will smooth out over time.
But while buying shares in pub companies based on a few weeks would be hasty, the sunshine nevertheless tends to have an addling effect on our mental state. Sunshine makes us feel better, and therefore free-er from financial worries, which is why it accounts for a tenth of the weighting of our IC Confidence index. Then again, during heatwaves, crime rates rise sharply - and not just because of the extra beer they've been guzzling in the pub garden. Scientists have found that we produce higher levels of adrenaline and testosterone when the weather is hot, and both hormones make us prone to doing rash things.
From an investment or trading perspective, that could mean hotter weather tempts us into taking risks we wouldn't otherwise take - after all, studies have frequently shown that risk-hungry traders often have elevated levels of testosterone even at the coolest of moments. Raised adrenaline, meanwhile, is part of the panic mechanism, and panic is not a state of mind in which we tend to make our best investment decisions.
Incidentally, panic is what we tend to do when a company suffers a profit warning - this week's 'survival guide' should help you overcome that particular emotion; or, better still, avoid being caught by them in the first place. It all comes down to understanding risk, which is why, when the temperature is up and our judgement blunted, it's time to be extra careful that you don't get burnt.
