Paradoxically, though, data in the week might suggest that monetary stimulus is becoming less necessary. On Monday, purchasing managers could say that their index of service sector activity has risen to its highest level since 2007. The following day, official figures could show a big rise in manufacturing output; they will have to do so to be compatible with the recent GDP data. Later in the day, the NIESR will publish its latest GDP estimate. It's likely to show growth of around 0.6 per cent in the three months to July, the same rate as in the previous two months. And the British Retail Consortium is likely to report that retail sales in July rose by around 3 per cent year on year; interpretation of that number will, however, be complicated by the fact that official data have recently been stronger than surveys of sales.
However, growth isn't just being powered by domestic demand. Friday's trade data are likely to show that the trade deficit narrowed in the second quarter, with exports rising faster than imports, implying that net trade has also contributed to GDP growth.
A big reason for this is that the eurozone economy is perking up. Monday's purchasing managers' survey should confirm that the decline in services sector activity has almost stopped. And industrial production numbers from France and Germany could both show small increases in June, implying decent quarter-on-quarter growth.
However, Italian industrial production is likely to be weaker. And official figures are likely to show that retail sales in June were lower than a year ago, with big falls in southern Europe. This will remind us that the region is a long way from good health.
In the US, the main figure of note will be Tuesday's trade deficit. It's likely to show a slight widening in the deficit, implying that net trade subtracted from GDP in the second quarter.
