This sign of an upswing will be corroborated on Tuesday. Although official data are likely to show that industrial production in the region was only flat in June, this would leave output almost 1 per cent up in the second quarter compared with the first quarter. And while Germany's ZEW survey of financial professionals is likely to be flat on the month, it will be consistent with them expecting the upturn to continue.
We will also see signs of growth in the US. Industrial production and retail sales are both likely to have risen in July, and Thursday's survey from the Philadelphia Fed is likely to hint at further growth to come.
With our main trading partners growing, the prospects for the UK are improving. Sadly, though, this might not be evident in next week's numbers. Wednesday's figures might show only a slight drop in unemployment; in fact, it's possible that joblessness will stay high even if the economy does expand, because productivity growth could at least partially recover. And Thursday's official figures might show that retail sales fell a little in July, albeit after a strong rise between April and June.
We won't have to look far for a reason for weak retail sales. Wednesday's numbers are likely to show that real wages are falling; wage growth of around 1.7 per cent is a full percentage point below CPI inflation.
On this latter point, though, we could see some good news. Tuesday's figures could show that inflation fell slightly in July, thanks to a petrol price rise in July 2012 dropping out of the annual data. Economists think this could be the first of several falls.
However, other figures on Tuesday might send a slight cautionary note here. These could show small rises in manufacturers' input and output price inflation, following quite large increases in the last two months. This, though, probably isn't as troubling as it seems, as it owes more to price falls last summer dropping out of the numbers, rather than to new inflation entering the picture.
If you want a guide to where the stock market's heading over the next 12 months, the best indicator next week will come from US capital flows numbers on Thursday. Foreign buying of US equities has been a good lead indicator of annual returns, because big buying is a sign of irrational exuberance and hence of overpriced equities. Recently, such buying has risen, and it now points to the market making no gains between now and next April.
