Predictions that sun-soaked beer gardens would have more attractions for the UK's thirsty pub regulars than sit-down meals in stuffy restaurants have proved to be correct, as we pointed out in a sector focus earlier in the year (Pubs cheer the sunshine, 17 Jul 2013). Blaming the weather for variations in performance is an old business ploy used by, usually under-pressure, chief executives. However, it genuinely has a real bearing on the pub sector's performance and the question is in what position does this leave the various companies within the sector, and who has benefited the most?
The latest figures from market research company Coffer Peach show how the good weather has boosted pub companies. Like-for-like sales (LFL) growth between April and July clearly show the effect of sunshine on turnover. The freezing spring, for example, meant that LFL sales were almost flat in April, while the eventual arrival of the warmest weather since 2006 meant that June and July registered comparative growth of 1.9 per cent and 1.2 per cent, respectively. Coffer's rolling figure for the year so far is LFL sales growing by an average of 1 per cent. That doesn't sound exciting, but in a sector that experienced everything nature has had to throw at it this year, plus the ever-present argument over the brewery-tie, such growth represents a genuine return on capital investment.
Those figures, however, hide a huge split between London pub groups and the rest of the country, along with those that operate large restaurant estates. For example, drinker-led pubs within the M25 saw a huge increase in LFL sales of 9.5 per cent in July, which comes out at a healthy 7.6 per cent when slower-performing restaurant groups are added in. Outside of the capital, trading was essentially flat for July, while the longer-term trend for pubs in the rest of the country show a long-term sales decline of 1.1 per cent, according to the market researcher.
