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Opinion

Next week's economics: 26-30 July

Next week's economics: 26-30 July
August 23, 2013
Next week's economics: 26-30 July

On Monday, Brazil announces its weekly trade balance figures, which are expected to confirm the growth in imports. So far this year, imports into Brazil have risen by 25 per cent at the same time that exports, particularly of iron ore, have been hit by slowing demand from China. The slowdown in China's industrial engine takes the stage on Tuesday, when figures showing profit growth for the country's industry is released. This has been sliding since reaching a peak this year of 15.5 per cent in May, falling to 6.3 per cent in June, with a further slowdown expected in July.

On the same day, the release of mortgage approval figures for Spain aren't expected to make for anything other than grim reading, with new individual residential mortgages falling by 29 per cent on annualised basis so far this year. The economic contrast with Germany couldn't be greater but it is unclear whether the closely watched IFO business confidence index will show the increase in business confidence continuing since a decisive upturn was noted in May, particularly now that Greece looks like it will require a further large-scale bailout.

Emerging markets currencies are very much in the news at the moment and the market will study Wednesday's Brazilian central statement on currency flows with interest, given the evidence of capital flight in other South American economies - Argentina recently introduced draconian capital controls, for example.

In Europe, Thursday sees another broad spread of releases with business confidence figures out for the depressed French and Italian economies. These are expected to show that confidence is still low, although less depressed than at the beginning of the year.

Friday swings back to emerging markets, with figures for business sentiment in August for China, alongside major GDP figures for India out on the same day. The subcontinent's stuttering growth rates have been a feature of the year, with the economy tracking well behind the 6.2 per cent GDP growth that had been forecast.

 

Chris Dillow is currently on annual leave.