Join our community of smart investors

Brady slumps with commodities

TIP UPDATE: Selling commodity trading software in a market where commodity prices are falling is proving hard going for Brady
September 9, 2013

Along with these half-year figures, management at commodity trading software provider Brady (BRY) revealed that second-half sales and profits are now expected to be materially lower than previously forecast. As a result, the shares plunged 17 per cent on the day the figures appeared.

IC TIP: Hold at 60p

However, chief executive officer Gavin Lavelle thinks investors needn't be concerned over Brady's longer-term outlook. He says the revenue miss this year merely reflects the fact that negotiations for a few big, complex contracts have taken longer than anticipated in the current volatile commodities market. Revenue from these should, nevertheless, arrive in 2014 and beyond. In the meantime, management has taken steps to cut £2.2m from costs on an annualised basis. Cost-cutting looks sensible - Brady's cost base has been rising steadily to facilitate its global expansion.

The group's first-half cash profit margin fell to 9 per cent from 15 per cent a year ago and adjusted EPS fell 52 per cent to 0.91p. Broker Cenkos, meanwhile, has slashed its full-year earnings estimates by around 40 per cent and now expects adjusted pre-tax profit of £3.3m, with adjusted EPS of 3.5p (from £5.0m and 5.9p in 2012) - although 2014's estimates remain unchanged at £6.7m and 7p, respectively.

BRADY (BRY)

ORD PRICE:60pMARKET VALUE:£48.6m
TOUCH:58-62p12-MONTH HIGH:106pLOW: 60p
DIVIDEND YIELD:2.7%PE RATIO:42
NET ASSET VALUE:50p*NET CASH:£5.7m

Half-year to 30 JunTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
201212.1-0.83-0.99nil
201314.9-0.14-0.16nil
% change+23---

*Includes intangible assets of £40.9m, or 50p a share