Economists expect flash purchasing managers' surveys on Monday to show another small rise, to the highest level for over two years, which would confirm that the region is out of recession. This story is likely to be corroborated on Tuesday by the National Bank of Belgium's business climate indicator, which could hit its highest level since January 2012, and by Germany's Ifo survey, which should post another rise in businesses' assessment of current conditions and expectations for future activity.
However, it doesn't follow that all is well in the region. Thursday's monetary figures will remind us that banks are still in trouble. One sign of this will be that lending to the private sector is likely to post another monthly decline, and has fallen 2 per cent in the last 12 months. Also, while overnight deposits are rising well, longer-term deposits have fallen over the last 12 months. This is a sign that savers don't trust banks sufficiently to tie up their money.
In the US, meanwhile, Tuesday's figures could bring us confirmation that house prices are bouncing back; the S&P/Case-Shiller index of them is likely to be up by over 12 per cent year on year. Other figures, though, will be less spectacular, taken together. Although durable goods orders and new home sales are expected to reverse last month's big falls, Friday's figures could show that personal incomes are flat, thanks to a squeeze on government spending and low wage growth. All this would be consistent with economists' expectations that the economy will grow only modestly during the third quarter.
UK figures are likely to be mixed. If Wednesday's CBI survey corroborates retailers' expectations last month, it should show that retail spending has accelerated in recent months. However, while households seem willing to spend, companies are less so. Thursday's third estimate of GDP is likely to show that companies are still running a big corporate surplus - that is, their retained profits far exceed their capital spending. This surplus is the counterpart (and perhaps the cause) of the government's deficit. Until we see signs of it falling significantly, and of companies starting to step up their spending, we can't be confident about the durability of the upturn.
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