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Help to Buy to accelerates housing recovery

Housing stocks should benefit from an electioneering Tory plan to bring forward the controversial second part of its Help to Buy scheme.
October 3, 2013

The government's controversial mortgage guarantee scheme has been brought forward in a surprise party conference season boost for estate agents and other housing stocks. The second part of Help to Buy, which will provide indemnity insurance for banks that lend at high loan-to-value ratios, was announced in March for introduction in January 2014. That remains the official start date for the policy - but borrowers will now be able to apply as early as next week.

Help to Buy II, which is separate from the existing equity loan scheme for new-build homes, has attracted near-universal criticism from economists. One objection concerns its focus on second-hand homes: by boosting demand to the tune of £130bn without addressing supply, it is likely to inflate prices. This would increase the burden of private debt, raise the risk of another boom and bust cycle, and push homes further beyond the reach of the first-time buyers the policy is ostensibly designed to assist.

The other big objection is that it piles risk on to the government balance sheet. If prices fall when the scheme expires in 2017, the banks may call in those indemnities. Far from cutting itself loose from the risky banking sector - the thrust of various ongoing banking reforms - the government is explicitly putting itself on the hook for its losses. Critics cite the worrying precedent of Fannie Mae, the US lender launched in similar circumstances in the 1930s.

The government has deflected these charges by deferring to the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee, which will review the policy every September. More importantly for Westminster, the policy has traction with the electorate. Property portal Rightmove clocked 60,000 page views on Sunday, the day after the timetable change of Help to Buy II was announced, up from just 14,000 the previous Sunday. Existing homeowners may also tacitly cheer a rising housing market - as the Tories well know.

In other conference news, communities secretary Eric Pickles announced a "tenants' charter" to encourage a cultural shift towards longer tenancy agreements in the private-rented sector.