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Next week's economics: 21-25 Oct

Next week's economics: 21-25 Oct
October 18, 2013
Next week's economics: 21-25 Oct

On Friday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is expected to estimate that real GDP grew by around 0.9 per cent in the third quarter, the biggest quarterly expansion for six years. And the CBI's survey of manufacturers on Thursday could hint at more to come. It is likely to report that order books and output expectations are both high.

The eurozone is also recovering. Thursday's flash purchasing managers' surveys are expected to show a fourth successive month of rising manufacturing activity - albeit at a slow pace - while growth in the service sector is at its best since June 2011. This picture should be corroborated by national surveys. Germany's Ifo index could reach its highest level for 18 months, and the National Bank of Belgium's indicator of business conditions - which is traditionally well correlated with activity in the eurozone generally - might hit its highest level for over two years.

This pick-up is no thanks to banks, though. The European Central Bank is likely to report on Friday that bank lending to the private sector has fallen almost 2 per cent in the past 12 months - although it might show that the contraction stopped last month. What's more, customers have little faith in banks; the figures are likely to show a fall in long-term deposits, suggesting people don't want to tie up their money for long.

Overall, the picture will be that the UK is probably outpacing the eurozone. While this might be welcomed by people daft enough to think of the economy as a 'global race', it poses a problem. It suggests that net trade might subtract from UK growth. With falling real wages holding back consumer spending and the CBI survey possibly showing that capital spending plans are still quite low, economists suspect that the current pace of expansion might not last very long. This sentiment could be evident in Wednesday's minutes of the MPC's latest meeting. These are likely to show that the committee unanimously favoured no policy change, but also that it is sufficiently worried by the fragility of the recovery not to want an early policy tightening.

Finally, watch out for public sector net borrowing numbers on Tuesday. These could show that borrowing in the first half of the year was lower than in 2012, which could suggest it is on course to undershoot the OBR's forecast. A big reduction in borrowing would, however, require that companies step up their investment, which is not happening yet.