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Opinion

Lending boost to recovery

Lending boost to recovery
November 1, 2013
Lending boost to recovery

This is encouraging because it suggests that business confidence is improving, and that investment - the volume of which is still 13.5 per cent below its pre-recession peak - might now be rising. Jens Larsen at RBC says the news will be "very welcome" at the Bank of England, which has long feared that a lack of credit to companies has been holding back the recovery. Such hopes are reinforced by news that companies' cash holdings are also rising - they grew by 7.9 per cent in the year to September - because such rises have in the past led to faster economic growth.

However, economists warn that the figures aren't wholly encouraging. Much of the recovery in lending is concentrated in the utilities sector. And Brian Hilliard at Societe Generale points out that lending to the smallest firms is still falling.

Also, a rise in lending isn't good news for everyone. One reason why small-cap stocks have boomed since the end of 2008 is that falling bank lending has weakened their potential competitors. If a pick-up in general lending does occur, it could increase the competitive pressures they face from expanding rivals - so-called creative destruction - and so partially reverse the rally in smaller stocks.