On Wednesday, the NIESR is expected to estimate that real GDP grew by around 0.8 per cent in the three months to October - roughly the same above-trend growth as we've had in the last few months. Other numbers will be consistent with this. On Tuesday, purchasing managers are expected to say that the services sector is expanding rapidly, while the British Retail Consortium should report a decent year-on-year rise in retail sales. And, on Wednesday, official figures should show that manufacturing output rose by more than 1 per cent in September, reversing August's surprise fall; it will have to show this if the numbers are to be consistent with the Q3 GDP estimates.
Eurozone numbers, however, will be more mixed. We should get some good news on Wednesday, when official figures could show that retail sales across the region are now growing after years of stagnation; they could post a quarter-on-quarter rise of around 0.8 per cent. And German industrial production the following day could show a quarterly rise of around 1 per cent.
However, Monday's purchasing managers' surveys are likely to confirm the message of the 'flash' estimate, which showed that growth faltered slightly in October. And Friday's data could show that French industrial production fell in Q3, albeit largely due to a poor July rather than to new weakness.
One effect of this difference in fortunes should be seen in Friday's figures. These are likely to show that the UK's trade gap is widening. This suggests that the government's hope for a "rebalanced" economy is a forlorn one. More significantly, because a big trade deficit is a sign of a current account deficit, this suggests that the UK is borrowing from overseas; we have, in this sense, a debt-fuelled expansion. This is not yet a problem, but it might become one.
We'll see what the European Central Bank and Bank of England make of all this in Thursday's policy announcements. No change is expected from either.
In the US, the main news will be Friday's employment report. This is likely to be weak thanks to the government shutdown, so unless there's a big surprise, market reaction should be muted.
