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Lonmin beats analysts' expectations

RESULTS: Lonmin has announced full-year production and financial results that were ahead of analysts' expectations - but risks remain
November 11, 2013

Shares in South African platinum miner Lonmin (LMI) jumped 7 per cent on the day that its full-year results and production figures appeared - these exceeded analysts' expectations.

IC TIP: Hold at 351p

Lonmin produced 751,000 ounces of platinum in the period, which beat previous company guidance of over 700,000 ounces and represented a 10.5 per cent increase year-on-year. Moreover, increased mining volumes and improved metal recoveries meant cash costs rose just 3.8 per cent year-on-year to R8,832 (£533) an ounce - despite a 14 per cent hike in the wage bill and a 12 per cent jump in power costs. Platinum group metal (PGM) prices, based in US dollars, were essentially flat year-on-year at $1,100 (£688) an ounce, but increased 17 per cent in rand terms as the South African currency weakened.

Looking ahead, Lonmin's new chief executive, Ben Magara, remains "cautious about the [PGM] markets in the near and medium term", but believes "the longer-term fundamentals of the PGM markets remain robust". Lonmin is guiding towards platinum sales in excess of 750,000 ounces in 2013-14 with unit costs again increasing by less than wage inflation.

Prior to these figures, Investec Securities was expecting adjusted EPS of 39.1¢ for 2014 (from 20.5¢ in 2013) and set a 266p price target - but these estimates are under review.

LONMIN (LMI)

ORD PRICE:351pMARKET VALUE:£2.0bn
TOUCH:350-351p12-MONTH HIGH:386pLOW: 243p
DIVIDEND YIELD:nilPE RATIO:18
NET ASSET VALUE:599¢*NET CASH:$201m

Year to 30 SepTurnover ($bn)Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)**Dividend per share (p)
20091.06-272-87.3nil
20101.5924030.415
20111.9929371.215
20121.61-698-108nil
20131.5214031.2nil
% change-6---

*Includes intangible assets of $502m, or 88¢ a share

**Adjusted to reflect December 2012's nine-for-five rights issue

£1=$1.60