Flash purchasing managers' surveys on Thursday are expected to show a small increase in the index of manufacturing activity, taking it to its highest level since May 2011. However, this would be consistent with only very slight growth. Much the same is likely to be true of services, where economists are looking for a small increase in the index, after falling last month.
This picture is likely to be corroborated by Friday's indicator of business conditions by the National Bank of Belgium; this too fell last month, having signalled a weak recovery in the summer.
Things might be slightly better in Germany, however. Although Friday's Ifo survey could show a levelling off in the index of current activity, this would be at a high level, consistent with a decent expansion. And both the Ifo survey and Tuesday's ZEW survey are likely to show expectations for future activity in the country are above their long-term average.
The US is also experiencing a modest expansion. Although Wednesday's figures could show a second successive weak month for retail sales, this might be a temporary effect of the government shutdown in October. More weight might be put upon Thursday's survey by the Philadelphia Fed, which could show that manufacturing is expanding, and is expected to do so further in coming months. Also, although Wednesday's figures could show that sales of pre-owned houses have dipped in the last two months, they are likely to be some 10 per cent up on a year ago. This is consistent with some optimism about the economic future.
The eurozone's sluggish expansion is hitting the UK. Thursday's CBI survey could show that orders and output expectations are a little less strong than they were two months ago. This could corroborate economists' suspicions that the current pace of expansion might not last.
We'll get the Bank of England's take on this issue with Wednesday's minutes of the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting. These are likely to show unanimous support for leaving monetary policy unchanged, in part due to doubts about whether the economy can sustain its recent pace.
Perhaps the most significant release for investors, though, will be Monday's news on US capital flows. These have recently shown than foreigners have been net sellers of US equities. For most of the last 15 years, this has been an excellent predictor of future annual returns on global equities, with net selling leading to good returns.
