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Next week's economics: 25-29 Nov

Next week's economics: 25-29 Nov
November 22, 2013
Next week's economics: 25-29 Nov

However, other numbers in the week might hint at consumer spending slowing in the fourth quarter. Although the CBI is expected to report on Wednesday that retail sales picked up in November, both it and official data agrees that this comes after a weak October. This would be consistent with Friday's report from GfK, which is likely to show that consumer confidence has flat-lined recently, having improved in the spring.

There might, though, be one sign of continued strength in the personal sector, with mortgage approvals on Friday expected to continue their recent rise. But this doesn't mean lending is booming: the stock of mortgage debt is likely to be up by only around 0.7 per cent year on year. Consumer credit, however, is growing faster (from a vastly lower base) - at a rate of around 4 per cent - which in part reflects people borrowing to tide themselves over as real wages fall, rather than high optimism about the future.

Friday's lending numbers might contain some encouraging news about the corporate sector. They could show cash holdings are growing strongly - around 8 per cent year on year - and that borrowing is no longer falling. These could be signs that companies are getting ready to step up their capital spending.

Eurozone data, meanwhile, will remind us why UK net exports are so weak. Friday's numbers will show that around 12.2 per cent of the workforce - 19.5m people - is unemployed; the rate among under-25s is almost 25 per cent. And Thursday's ECB data will show that bank lending to the private sector has fallen in the last 12 months - although if we're lucky we could see signs of the fall stopping recently.

US numbers will be mixed. Tuesday's figures could show a recovery in consumer confidence after a big drop last month, while Wednesday could see a drop in durable goods orders after a big rise the previous month. We'll also see on Tuesday that house prices are rising strongly, with the S&P/Case-Shiller index up by over 13 per cent on a year ago. Even so, this will leave prices around 20 per cent lower than their 2006 peak.