Join our community of smart investors
Opinion

Next week's economics: 2-6 Dec

Next week's economics: 2-6 Dec
November 29, 2013
Next week's economics: 2-6 Dec

Purchasing managers' surveys are likely to confirm flash estimates, which showed that eurozone growth slowed for a second successive month in November, to barely a crawl. By contrast, the same surveys are likely to show the UK services sector growing at its fastest pace since 1997 - although they might also show that the pace of expansion in manufacturing has slowed recently, in part because of weak demand in Europe.

Chancellor George Osborne is likely to make a big deal of this in his Autumn Statement on Thursday. He's expected to point out that the Office For Budget Responsibility has revised up its estimates for economic growth not only this year but in future years, and because of this has revised down its borrowing forecasts. This could give him room to announce some giveaway to ease the squeeze on real incomes.

One effect of this squeeze is that retail sales are growing only modestly. The BRC is likely to say on Tuesday that they grew by less than 3 per cent in the year to November. This reflects the fact that while rising employment is supporting consumer spending, falling real incomes are holding it back.

Other figures in the week will remind us that there's little danger of an early rise in interest rates. The Bank of England's survey on Friday could show that households' inflation expectations have fallen a little, and are not so high as to 'knock out' the Bank's promise to keep Bank rate at 0.5 per cent at least until unemployment drops below 7 per cent. One issue here, though, is that the salience of price rises in the utilities sector might raise expectations, despite the fact that low inflation elsewhere should be reducing them.

In the US, we should see signs of steady growth. Monday's ISM survey is likely to show that manufacturing activity is growing well, while Friday's employment report could show a net rise in jobs of almost 200,000. Revised GDP figures on Thursday, however, might send a warning shot. These could confirm initial estimates which showed that 0.8 percentage points of the third-quarter's 2.8 per cent growth was due to a build-up of inventories; this normally points to slower growth later as those inventories are run down.

We'll get the latest monetary policy announcements from the Bank of England and ECB on Thursday. No change is expected from either, although the ECB's press conference might hint at further policy moves, such as some form of quantitative easing or negative interest rates - charging banks to deposit cash at the ECB.