Politics and the housebuilders

And this year was likely to maintain this amazing track record which is why I recommended jumping the gun and buying into the sector early ('A standing dish', 25 November 2014). Fast forward 14 weeks and the average share price gain on the nine listed builders was a thumping 20 per cent by early March, almost five times greater than the return on the FTSE All-share index. This was the cue to bank profits on four of the companies – Bovis (BVS), Redrow (RDW), Galliford Try (GFRD) and Crest Nicholson (CRST) (‘Housebuilders: trading bumper gains’, 9 March 2015). It proved the right decision in hindsight as shares in each company had hit technical resistance and subsequently failed to make any further headway between early March and the end of the month which is when I had originally recommended closing these short-term trading positions. On average shares in the four companies lost 3.4 per cent in value in the last three weeks of March.

FTSE 350 Housebuilders price performance (25 November 2014 to 5 March 2015)

The five companies I advised running profits on until the end of March – Persimmon (PSN), Barratt Developments (BDEV), Taylor Wimpey (TW.), Bellway (BWY) and Berkeley Group (BKG) – hardly set the world on fire, losing on average 0.8 per cent of their value in that three week period, albeit that was still better than the 2.2 per cent decline in the FTSE All-share index against which I benchmark the share price performances.

FTSE 350 Housebuilders price performance (5 March 2015 to 31 March 2015)

I am now out of this trade, and content with the 19 per cent average gain racked up between the end of November and the end of March if you followed my advice to the letter. Clearly, some readers may not have done so, and may have preferred to hold onto all of their positions into April. True, the average gain on the nine housebuilders has been 2.37 per cent this month, but this only makes up for the fall in the sector in the last three weeks of March after I first advised banking profits on some of the shares. The 2.37 per cent average gain in April lags the 4.67 per cent rise in the FTSE All-share index, so the strong upward momentum we witnessed between late November and March is starting to flag. That’s worth noting if you haven’t already banked profits.

FTSE 350 Housebuilders price performance (31 March 2015 to 28 April 2015)

Political uncertainty proves a drag

It’s easy to understand why this is the case as not only have share prices in the home builders re-rated significantly already, so valuations are now much higher, but the political uncertainty caused by the forthcoming general election is adding additional risk. A Mansion Tax, rent controls and limits on the time developers can sit on land before having to build on it are some of the manifesto proposals which are set to be introduced in the event of the incumbent coalition being ousted by a Labour Party-led government.

And it’s a risk I don’t feel comfortable with at the moment given the prospect of another hung parliament, not to mention the outside chance of another general election if a new government is unable to be formed. That’s because The Fixed-term Parliaments Act allows for an early dissolution of Parliament if a motion is passed by a two-thirds majority for an early general election, or if a motion of no confidence is passed and a government isn’t formed within a fortnight of the May election.

Frankly, with the Labour Party facing a wipe out in Scotland, then there is a chance that even with the SNP backing in a coalition, a Labour-SNP pact will not have the requisite 326 seats to form a majority government. And unless the Liberal Democrats do better than many pundits are predicting, latest forecasts predict that the party will lose over half of its 57 seats, the current Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition could also fail to have a working majority in the Commons. Indeed, using the latest predictions from Election Forecast, a team of university researchers using polling data to predict how seats will be distributed in next week’s general election, a Labour-SNP coalition is on course to have 317 seats and a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition around 307 seats, both of which are shy of the 326 seats majority required.

Of course political deals with minority parties could swing the balance of power for either of these coalitions, and the Liberal Democrats could even form part of a Labour-led government, but with opinion polls indicating the result will be incredibly close, then in the absence of a cobbled together coalition offering incentives to several minority parties, I would not discount the possibility of a political gridlock and another general election in the months ahead.

Temptation to bank profits

Bearing in mind this back drop, and given valuations across the sector are significantly higher now that they were six months ago, the temptation to bank gains racked up in the past few months could easily deflate share prices over the summer months especially if newsflow is tempered somewhat if homebuyers become more cautious due to the political deadlock. A decisive victory for the Conservative Party would undoubtedly be a positive, and could unleash pent up demand from homebuyers into the housing market, but I am not willing to bet on this possibility right now and feel it’s better to trim exposure at the moment.

And that’s why I am running profits on just one listed housebuilder, Aim-traded Inland Homes (INL: 64.5p), for the company specific reasons I outlined in my recent article (‘Decision time’, 16 April 2015). I have also decided to book a massive gain on the holding in FTSE 250 property group Daejan (DJAN: 5,730p), having first recommended buying the shares little over two years ago when the price was 3,300p ('Buy the breakout', 14 February 2013). The shares have been struggling to break the 6,000p level, and I feel investors are likely to react negatively if a Labour government, if elected, goes ahead and imposes rent controls as party leader Ed Milliband has outlined. Daejan is a large private landlord and has significant holdings in the London market so could face a double whammy of a cooling of the London residential property market in general due to the Labour Party’s proposed Mansion tax, and government interference into the free workings of the private sector rental market.

So although I still believe Daejan’s shares offer value on a 22 per cent discount to book value, albeit some liquidity discount is required for the fact that the Freshwater family own over 70 per cent of the equity, there is not enough upside left to make it worthwhile holding on given the political uncertainty I have outlined above.

Exploiting valuation anomalies

There are selective holdings I am keen on irrespective of who is running the country in a few weeks time, one of which is Henry Boot (BHY: 225p) (‘A six-shooter of small cap buys’, 10 March 2015). The 129-year-old Sheffield based construction and property company is likely to be a beneficiary no matter which political party is in power. Henry Boot owns a significant number of oven ready sites which undoubtedly will prove attractive to major housebuilders as I pointed out when I initiated coverage, especially if they are forced through political intervention to ramp out new build output (‘A bootiful investment’, 19 February 2015).

I am also maintaining my positive stance on the shares of Mountview Estates (MTVW: 11,000p), a property company which owns more than 2,400 residential properties under regulated tenancies, 329 life tenancies and 1,127 ground rents.

Rental returns are already below open-market rates - the payback comes when the property is sold and the company reaps the full vacant market value of the asset – so the business is likely to be largely unaffected by the imposition of rent controls if the Labour Party is elected. Furthermore, the current open market value of these rental properties is £695m, or 62 per cent more than Mountview’s own market value even though the company only has net debt of £63m on its balance sheet. The Labour Party’s freebie to first time buyers – stamp duty exemption on properties worth up to £300,000 – is positive for Mountview given its property resale values are generally below this level.

So with the shares trading inline with my recommended buy-in price of 11,000p in my 2015 Bargain shares portfolio, or almost a third below the company’s net asset value after marking property values to their current market prices, I am happy maintaining my buy recommendation.

MORE FROM SIMON THOMPSON...

Please note that I have published articles on the following 26 other companies since mid-April:

■ Nationwide Accident Repair Services: Accept bid; SeaEnergy: Buy at 21.5p; Netplay TV: Buy at 9.5p; Stanley Gibbons: Buy at 253p ('Profiting from M&A', 13 Apr 2015)

■ Getech: Buy at 61p, target 80p; Cohort: Buy at 280p, target 300p; Faroe Petroleum: Buy at 86.5p, target 100p; Gama Aviation: Hold at 272.5p ('Flying high', 14 Apr 2014)

■ Entu: Buy at 145p, target 165p; Flowtech Fluidpower: Buy at 121p, target 150p ('Riding the new listings gravy train', 15 Apr 2015)

■ Inland Homes: Buy at 64.5p, target 80p; Walker Crips: Buy at 45p, target 54p; Software Radio Technology: Buy at 32p, target range 40p to 43p ('Decision time', 16 Apr 2015)

■ Bioquell: Buy at 124p, target range 155p to 159p ('Bug busting profit potential', 20 Apr 2015)

■ Stadium: Run profits at 123p, target 140p; Trifast: Buy at 108p, target 140p; First Property: Run profits at 39p ('Running bumper profits', 20 Apr 2015)

■ Somero Enterprises: Buy at 140p, target 185p ('On solid foundations', 22 Apr 2015)

■ Creston: Buy at 124p, target 150p; K3 Business Technology: Buy at 226p, target 275p ('On the acquisition trail', 23 Apr 2015)

■ STM: Buy at 35p, target 47.5p ('Tapping into a pensions payday', 27 Apr 2015)

■ Trakm8: Buy at 117p, target 135p; Redde: Buy at 124p, target 140p; Conygar: Buy at 185p, target 200p; Record: Buy at 34p; Camkids: Sell at 20p (‘Hitting target prices’, 28 April 2015)

■ Simon Thompson's book Stock Picking for Profit can be purchased online at www.ypdbooks.com, or by telephoning YPDBooks on 01904 431 213 and is being sold through no other source. It is priced at £14.99, plus £2.95 postage and packaging. Simon has published an article outlining the content: 'Secrets to successful stockpicking'