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Opinion

Baby boom to bust

Baby boom to bust
September 10, 2015
Baby boom to bust

The reason there are more elderly, and the reason there are more of us all full stop, is because of the phenomenal advances in medicine and preventative healthcare, not forgetting dietary improvements and sanitary conditions. This wonderful combination has dragged millions out of filth, pestilence and starvation and is probably the biggest advancement of the 20th century. It is to be applauded.

 

IMF UK population

 

The reason too many pensioners face an uncertain economic future is that governments - and workplace schemes - have not fully funded promised entitlements. They perpetuate the fallacy that somehow or other, come the day of reckoning, the money will magically appear; others call it robbing Peter to pay Paul. Millennials see it as stealing from their inheritance - as if they had a God-given right to a comfortable future.

Let's roll up our sleeves and work on the key issues. The cost: there are always ways and means to cut corners, as industry knows all too well. Downsizing, perhaps obligatory, to free up capital, more efficient delivery of services - usually linked to economies of scale - and rationing. This is not evil Big Brother because during WWII Britain understood this. But before that and above all, encourage saving as early as possible so that people really grasp saving for a rainy day.

 

Japan working-age population

 

Question the concept of ever-expanding economic growth and its associated expanding population. Is that really what we want? And is immigration therefore necessary? Japan actively discourages foreign workers yet has the biggest proportion of elderly in the world. At one point the government seriously considered exporting care home residents to the Philippines, where housing, and above all nursing care, are so much cheaper. Anathema perhaps, but at least they're trying to think outside the box.

 

Portugal's population under 15

  

The bigger risk is not so much the absolute ratio of age groups, but the acceleration or deceleration of the oldest to the youngest. This problem is currently most acute in Catholic countries where church dictat forced women into multiple births. As these many 'kids' reach retirement, and because contemporary women are having far fewer babies than needed to replace populations (2.1 per women to maintain the status quo), there are an awful lot of grandparents. The Big Daddy here is China, where a one child policy (in urban areas) means that each toddler has four doting grandparents; known as 'the little emperor' - it is a particularly nasty, and often fat, member of the species. And then, of course, the penchant for sons - so that today's boys will never be able to start a family. Population implosion!

 

China's population

 

Add to this the trend away from the countryside, and you have a double whammy of barren - literally - hinterland versus overcrowded megalopolises. Portugal has one of the most extreme examples of this, losing 2 per cent of its citizens in the last four years alone (with emigration an added issue), and where the National Statistics Institute projects a drop from 10.5m to 6.3m inhabitants within two generations - and an under 15 year old to over 65 ratio of 464, a European record.