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Jimmy Choo - more ugly sister than Cinderella

Shares in luxury shoe maker Jimmy Choo (CHOO) have lost their sparkle a year on from the IPO.
October 1, 2015

Luxury shoe brand and retailer Jimmy Choo (CHOO) has grand hopes for growth in China, but with the country's economy slowing, we think there could be disappointment ahead. Brokers seem to be thinking the same with consensus full-year forecasts falling by 5 per cent over the last four weeks, according to Bloomberg. What's more, the highly-rated shares have failed to maintain their initial post-IPO momentum, and concerns are mounting about a large shareholder selling when a lock-up arrangement ends later this month.

IC TIP: Sell at 146p
Tip style
Sell
Risk rating
High
Timescale
Short Term
Bull points
  • Like-for-like growth
  • Rolling out new store concept
Bear points
  • Weak growth across Emea
  • Overreliance on growth in Asia
  • Store refurbishment disruption
  • Wholesale warehouse shift/declining sales

We previously described half-year numbers from the shoe king as "prosaic" and, on closer inspection, the group appears dangerously exposed to volatile consumer trends in the Far East. True, assisted by the popularity of its Cinderella shoe, two store openings and three conversions of franchise stores, Jimmy Choo reported strong first-half sales growth in Asia ex-Japan of 34.5 per cent. But this region only accounted for 14 per cent of the total. Japanese retail sales were also strong, growing at 20.5 per cent thanks to a consistent influx of Chinese tourists. But again, these sales are a relatively small piece of the whole at 11 per cent. A lot relies on further growth in the region to underpin strong growth expectations, and a lacklustre performance in other regions held back first-half results.

 

 

In Europe, the Middle East and Africa (Emea), which accounted for 41 per cent of revenue, first-half sales fell 4.5 per cent, reflecting the weakening euro, a tail-off in the number of Russian tourist shoppers and the closure of several stores for renovation - including a flagship store on London's Sloane Street. Meanwhile, progress in America, accounting for 33 per cent of first-half revenue, was hit by weak tourism and increased competition, although currency movements helped reported sales come in 5.1 per cent ahead. On a like-for-like basis, first-half sales growth of 3.3 per cent fell short of the 5.7 per cent reported last year and overall constant-currency growth was 6.5 per cent with underlying EPS up 2.8 per cent.

The conversion of three franchise outlets into retail concepts in Singapore and Malaysia adversely affect wholesale revenue in the first half, which account for a third of the total. A shift to a new warehouse in Switzerland also weighed on these sales, which fell 3.9 per cent.

The prospect of a large shareholder selling out of Jimmy Choo is also causing jitters. This month's one-year IPO anniversary means a lock-up agreement with majority shareholder JAB is due to expire. JAB - the investment arm of the German billionaire Reimann family often associated with Reckitt Benckiser (RB.) - has had majority control of Jimmy Choo since 2011 when it bought the company for more than £500m.

JIMMY CHOO (CHOO)
ORD PRICE:146pMARKET VALUE:£569m
TOUCH:146-147p12-MONTH HIGH:184pLOW: 136p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:nilFORWARD PE RATIO:17
NET ASSET VALUE:118p*NET DEBT:26%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)**Dividend per share (p)
20122432.3n/an/a
2013282-21.4n/an/a
2014300-5.36.10.0
2015**32733.67.10.0
2016**35640.38.60.0
% change+9+20+21-

Normal market size: 7,500

Matched bargain trading

Beta: 0.53

*Includes intangible assets of £587m, or 151p a share

**Liberum forecasts, adjusted EPS figures