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Why Patisserie wants a bigger bite

The plan is to double the number of Patisserie Valerie sites, but does this make the shares worth buying?
November 30, 2016

Patisserie Holdings (CAKE) - owner of Patisserie Valerie - doesn't report like-for-like sales figures because "they're a bit meaningless", says chief executive Paul May. So it's worth noting that the group opened 21 new stores last year, which explains much of the growth logged at the top line. Better purchasing practices are behind an 80 basis point rise in margins, while a close eye on costs helped grow cash profits by 18 per cent to £22.2m.

IC TIP: Hold at 280p

Speaking of costs, the group is optimistic when it comes to the risk of possible price inflation next year. Although finance director Chris March admits there's been some pricing pressure in terms of raw materials, the group banks most of its costs - and then its sales too - in sterling. That leaves little room for a material foreign exchange headwind this year.

Around 20 more openings are slated for the current financial year, which should cost around £5.5m, although management says the average store payback (the time taken to cover the original investment) takes around 23 months at the moment.

Analysts at finnCap expect pre-tax profits of £20m for the year ending September 2017, giving EPS of 15.9p, compared to £17.2m and 13.6p in FY2016.

PATSSERIE HOLDINGS (CAKE)
ORD PRICE:280pMARKET VALUE:£280m
TOUCH:277-280p12-MONTH HIGH:472pLOW: 253p
DIVIDEND YIELD:0.7%PE RATIO:20
NET ASSET VALUE:78p*NET CASH:£13.3m

Year to 30 SepTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
2012**49.56.2326na
201360.18.28.9nil
201476.610.410.4nil
201591.914.611.41.67
2016104.117.213.72.00
% change+13+18+20+20

Ex-div: 12 Jan

Payment: 10 Feb

*Includes intangible assets of £17.8m, or 17.8p a share **Pre-IPO figures