So far he has proved as erratic, outspoken and surprising as we had feared. His off-the-cuff comments could prove dangerous, throwing markets off balance. The situation is exacerbated by professional investors who are not used to dealing with a layman, rather than a career politician, and because the liberal elite are in a state of shock and are currently unable to react. Add in Brexit, political uncertainty in Europe and the growing confidence of some strong-arm leaders and a lot could go wrong.
So, are we really facing a new world order? And if so, how much of it has been priced in? To try to help us decide we look at the value of the US dollar from four technical perspectives because it ought to be the first to feel a seismic change and would have the most broad effects on global assets.
The US dollar index is a basket of major currencies computed by the Intercontinental Exchange; over half its weighting is the euro, then the Japanese yen with 13.6 per cent, followed by sterling with 11.9. The monthly chart shows it's already given up half of Trump's rally. More importantly, after peaking at 104.00 it's back down at the psychological level of 100.00 - an area that has capped for most of the past 30 years. Then add in the fact that it's currently worth almost 50 per cent more than it was at 2008's record low and that it is overbought on the relative strength index; you can see that a real leap of faith is required for it to hold at current levels, let alone make further significant gains. Yet most economists' and pundits' current consensus is that it will be the standout currency this year. The chart does not currently back this view, with January's bearish engulfing candle hinting that over the coming year it will move back into the 93.00-100.00 range that has dominated the past two years.
US dollar index
The chart of the euro against the US dollar is not nearly as clear, but also hints that last year's dip below 1.0600, which had supported prices since early 2015, was false, unsustainable and that the rounded bottom against 1.0350 will push us back into the 1.0600-1.1600 range.
Euro/US dollar
Cable is trickier because since floating in the 1970s it traded down below 1.3000 for six months in 1985, only to reverse the drop within four months - and hasn't been back there since! Here again the US dollar is already trading at extreme levels and further significant gains will prove difficult.
Sterling/US dollar
Finally against the Japanese yen, where currency wars have been a semi-permanent feature of these two nations, we see that the 2012 engineered move to yen weakness peaked in 2015. Post-Trump weakness is a retracement which has probably run its course - no doubt much to the chagrin of PM Abe and the Bank of Japan.
US dollar/yen
