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Timing is key for Premier Oil

Full-year results for Premier were defined by three elements: tax credits, falling costs and further progress on refinancing
March 10, 2017

Not many companies posted a tax credit larger than their market capitalisation this results season, but then Premier Oil (PMO) has long been in a unique position. The $522m (£429m) offset, which pushed the debt-laden energy explorer to a $123m net earnings profit, was largely drawn from losses not previously recognised, although accounting changes to the treatment of decommissioning provisions and investment allowances also helped.

IC TIP: Hold at 60p

Support also appears to have arrived from Premier's financiers. A total of 87 per cent of lenders by value have agreed to the terms of a refinancing, meaning amendments to borrowing terms - which effectively kick retail bond and private lending maturities back to 2021 - are imminent.

An end to the saga has been long coming, and a glance at the cash flow statement demonstrates how timing (or a lack of it) has affected the Premier story over the past two years. While production increased by 24 per cent to 71,400 barrels a day last year, a post-hedge oil price of $52 meant that operating cash flow could only cover 64 per cent of capital expenditure totalling $678m. This outlay will fall heavily this year, as exploration costs fall and Catcher switches from a cash eater to a cash generator.

Market analysts expect pre-tax profits of $19.5m and zero EPS in 2017, moving to profits of $247m and 31.9¢ in 2018.

PREMIER OIL (PMO)

ORD PRICE:60pMARKET VALUE:£305m
TOUCH:59.5-60p12-MONTH HIGH:100pLOW: 38p
DIVIDEND YIELD:NILPE RATIO:3
NET ASSET VALUE:158¢*NET DEBT:$2.8bn

Year to 31 DecTurnover ($bn)Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (p)
20121.4036047.95.0
20131.5028544.25.0
20141.63-363-43.3nil
20151.07-830-210nil
20160.98-39125.7nil
% change-8---

Ex-div: na

Payment: na

£1=$1.22 *Includes intangible assets of $1.25bn, or 245¢ a share.