Next week’s purchasing managers’ surveys are likely to report that both manufacturing and construction activity are weak. One reason for this, of course, is that uncertainty about Brexit is causing companies to delay investing in both new capital and in export efforts. The University of Tubingen’s Gernot Müller and colleagues estimate that by 2020 this uncertainty will result in the UK economy being 4 per cent smaller than it would otherwise be.
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Stable inflation
Inflation will rise – but not much, which points to interest rates staying near zero for a long time.
Chris Dillow