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Market Outlook: Xi commemorates 40 years

Since opening up the economy
December 18, 2018

‘’No one is in a position to dictate to the Chinese people what should or should not be done’’, said one little part of the official translation from Mandarin of President Xi’s broadcast speech which lasted an hour and a half. Commemorating Deng Xiaoping’s decision to restructure the economy in 1978, I remember the day the very first Chinese students started at my university wearing their Mao suits. Xi continued, ’’we will resolutely reform what should be reformed, and make no change where there should and cannot be any reform’’.

Published today, a report commissioned by the UK’s business ministry and reviewed by Sir John Kingsman, chairman of insurer Legal & General, accused the Financial Reporting Council (which oversees auditors) of being ‘toothless and useless’. He added, ‘we need to build a new house, [one which will be] feared by those it regulates’. Meanwhile the CMA suggested the auditing and advisory functions of the biggest audit firms should be split.

DAX 30

Not oversold on the daily chart either as we consolidate neatly clearly under first Fibonacci retracement resistance.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER: Took my profits 100 pips ahead of target as bagging the cash before Christmas was just too tempting.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Small short at 11000; stop above 11200. Target 10500.

FTSE 100

Consolidating another small step lower, clearly below first Fibonacci retracement resistance. I continue to worry what might happen in thin markets this week as we are so close to the bottom of a massive, important broadening top chart pattern. 

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 6770; stop well above 6900. Target 6200.

S&P 500

Media and pundits scrambling as bearish momentum increases and indices are within a hair’s breadth of this year’s lows.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Square.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Still square and might remain so until January.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Classic Brexit Britain as the dip below 1.2600 looks increasingly like a false break. Also, helped a little by President trump’s continued attacks on Fed chairman Powell and Tweeting comments like [we have] ‘’a very strong dollar’’, ‘’Paris burning’’, and ‘’China way down’’.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.2650; stop below 1.2475. Target 1.2875

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

EURO/US DOLLAR

As feared, I have been forced to re-draw the symmetrical triangle as we had moved too far into the apex of the original one. Consolidation continues.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Long at 1.1395; stop below 1.1260. Target 1.1600.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

GOLD

Perking up rather more smartly than I might have expected. A worrying sign but can only imagine it’s caused by those scrambling out of Wall Street.

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 1238; stop above 1255. Target 1212.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.