The Trader: Stocks firm ahead of jobs report, waiting on OPEC

European stocks rallied again in early trade after yet another record high for Wall Street as investors look ahead to today’s big jobs report from the US. The FTSE 100 rose above 7,150 for its best since 18 June and close to the post-pandemic peak set a few days before at 7,189.63. The DAX was up 0.4 per cent in early trade to 15,666. Travel & leisure, basic resources and tech lead the way higher on the Euro Stoxx 600 this morning, whilst banks and retail are down. Earlier saw the S&P 500 notch a 6th straight record close, finishing above 4,300 for the first time at 4,319.94 with all sectors in the green, led by a 1.6 per cent pop for energy stocks on higher oil prices. 

All eyes today turn to the US jobs report, the monthly nonfarm payrolls. Initial jobless claims declined to 364,000 last week, data yesterday showed, the lowest level since the pandemic started, but there are still more than 11m Americans receiving pandemic-related benefits. Today’s NFP is expected to print around 700k, but as ever the range of estimates is quite wide. That would imply an improvement from May’s 559,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 5.6 per cent from 5.8 per cent. Whilst we know the Fed has signalled it’s not ignorant to inflation risks, we also know that the labour market is a key factor in determining the likely timing and pace of tightening when it does happen. Since the Fed’s last meeting, which the market took as a sign of more hawkishness (from a very dovish base), the equation for markets has changed slightly. US 10-year yields trade around 1.46% ahead of the report, whilst US equity index futures are mildly higher. 

OPEC failed to agree on an increase in production yesterday, as the UAE emerged as a dissenter against plans to gradually raise production by an additional 400k bpd each month through to December until the baseline for its own output is raised. The agreement in principle would also have led to the production deal being extended through to the end of 2022. The failure of OPEC members to agree to the deal means the planned OPEC+ meeting has been pushed back to today and could go on into the weekend. If OPEC cannot agree a deal, it could mean there is no agreement to gradually raise output, leaving production at current levels and forcing prices higher in what’s already seen as a very tight market.  

WTI (continuous) remains well supported above $74.20 after spiking on yesterday’s news before paring gains a touch. The market seems to still expect a deal to be struck – failure could see another leg up.

Elsewhere, the bid for the dollar we have seen all week continues, with GBPUSD trading at the lowest since mid-April at 1,3750, which yet take it back to the double bottom at 1.3660.

EURUSD also dropping to weakest since early April, bear flag playing out still, possible extension to the March low at 1.170. But in both cases the dollar is starting to look a little stretched.

Bitcoin futures around $33k, still trades under 200-day SMA.

Neil Wilson is chief market analyst at Markets.com