The UK economy is recovering strongly, next week’s numbers should tell us.
On Thursday, the CBI is likely to report that manufacturing output has risen strongly, and that firms expect it to rise further as they fulfil their strong order books. This picture should be confirmed by purchasing managers on Friday, who could report that near-record highs in the proportions of companies in both manufacturing and services seeing increased output.
A symptom of this upturn is that government borrowing is falling. Wednesday’s figures should show that net borrowing in the first three months of this financial year was around £70bn, compared with £119.4bn in the same period last year. It is, however, far too soon to say whether borrowing for the year as a whole will hit the OBR’s forecast of £233.9bn.