Traders have long-abandoned hopes for a first US rate cut in May, and next week’s bumper release of labour market data could sway the case for a June pivot. In the March meeting, US rate-setters warned that “job gains have remained strong and the unemployment rate has remained low”. Policymakers will be paying close attention to next week’s JOLTs job openings, ADP employment survey and payroll data.
More UK house price data will be released on Friday, courtesy of the Halifax House Price Index. Last month’s data showed that February prices were 1.7 per cent higher than in the same month a year earlier – mirroring the trend seen in other house price indices this year. Kim Kinnaird, director of Halifax Mortgages, said that the statistics “align with other promising signs of increased housing activity, such as mortgage approvals”, and leave average house prices only £1,800 off their June 2022 peak.
Monday 1 April
China: Final manufacturing PMI
Japan: Large Manufacturing Index, final manufacturing PMI
US: Manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing, construction spending
Tuesday 2 April
Euro area: Final manufacturing PMI
UK: BRC shop price index, final CIPS manufacturing PMI, mortgage approvals, M4 money supply, net consumer credit
US: Auto sales, factory inventories, JOLTS job openings
Wednesday 3 April
Euro area: Inflation, core inflation, unemployment rate
China: Services PMI
Japan: Services PMI
US: ADP employment survey, final composite and services PMIs, ISM services
Thursday 4 April
Euro area: Final composite and services PMIs, PPI inflation
Japan: Foreign bond investment
UK: Final CIPS composite and services PMIs
US: Trade balance
Friday 5 April
Euro area: Retail sales
Japan: Real household consumption, real household income, FX reserves, preliminary Leading Index figures
UK: Halifax HPI, CIPS construction PMI
US: Hourly earnings, average workweek, manufacturing payrolls, non farm payrolls, unemployment rates, consumer credit
