Last month, the UK’s headline rate of inflation slowed to 3.4 per cent, and analysts at Barclays expect it to dip to 3.2 per cent next week. Progress might seem slow, but we should see a far more substantial drop in the subsequent set of figures as base effects and a fall in the Ofgem energy price cap finally pull the inflation rate below 2 per cent. Analysts at Capital Economics think that from then on, “CPI inflation in the UK will be comfortably below inflation in the US and eurozone”.
Policymakers in Japan will also be hoping for positive inflation news on Friday. In March, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) put an end to negative interest rates, hiking rates for the first time in 17 years. But rate-setters are still not confident about a sustainable return to the inflation target, and were tight-lipped about the prospect of further rate hikes as a result.
China will publish figures for first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth on Tuesday. Data from the first two months of the year has been encouraging: external demand and infrastructure look strong, although housing remains subdued. Economists at Societe Generale think that growth will be less of a concern in 2024, but warn that “the challenges of deleveraging and geopolitics are not getting any easier”.
Monday 15 April
Euro area: Industrial production
Japan: Core machinery orders, retail sales
US: Empire State Index, retail sales, business inventories, NAHB HPI
Tuesday 16 April
China: Q1 GDP, industrial output, retail sales
Euro area: Trade balance
UK: Unemployment, average earnings
US: Building permits, housing starts, capacity utilisation, industrial production, manufacturing production
Wednesday 17 April
Euro area: Inflation, core inflation
Japan: Trade balance
UK: Inflation, core inflation, PPI inflation, RPI inflation, ONS HPI
Thursday 18 April
US: Initial jobless claims Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, existing home sales, leading indicators
Friday 19 April
Japan: Inflation, core inflation
UK: Retail sales
