CentralNic defies advertising gloom

Aim-listed internet services group CentralNic (CNIC) has evidently made shareholder returns a priority in the past few quarters. Its inaugural final dividend of 1p was paid out in mid-June and the company announced a second share buyback programme just a few weeks later.

This largesse has ostensibly come at a cost – with leverage growing to 1.0 times pro-forma cash profits, up from 0.9 times previously. Meanwhile, net debt increased by almost $12mn (£9.5mn) to a $68.2mn in the six months to the end of June 2023. Management does not appear to be concerned, however, particularly given the company’s growing emphasis on using artificial intelligence (AI) across its operations. 

CentralNic’s online marketing business, which accounted for over 90 per cent of its first-half sales, creates AI-generated “online consumer journeys”. In practice, this means it aims to convert ad campaigns on search engines into actual ecommerce transactions. The group notes enthusiastically that this market is estimated to be worth $80bn in the US alone by 2025. 

In its interim results, the company’s directors said they expect it to trade “at least in line” with current market expectations for the full year. This might be difficult for some investors to believe, given advertising budgets famously get slashed during most economic downturns. But the group is showing no real signs of a sales slowdown at present. 

Adjusted operating cash conversion did fall to 94 per cent in the first half (from 100 per cent last year) – although this is hardly an overly worrisome development. With the shares trading on just 7.8 times predicted full-year earnings, there isn’t much to lose here. Buy.

Last IC view: Buy, 138p, 27 February 2023