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Input costs still hurting Smurfit

Recovered fibre costs increased more than €120m in the year
February 7, 2018

Sometimes it's not enough to keep your own house in order. Smurfit Kappa (SKG) had to contend with difficult external issues through the first half of 2017, but the outlook improved markedly in the fourth quarter, with margins and profits heading in the right direction. The recovery was insufficient to offset the earlier operating challenges, however, and the cash profit margin contracted to 14.5 per cent from 15.1 a year earlier, leaving profits broadly flat on 2016 at €1.24bn (£1.1bn). 

IC TIP: Hold at 2454p

The packaging group’s performance continued to suffer as a result of the increased cost of recovered fibre, especially in the Americas. Prices increased by more than €120m for the year, with the group anticipating input cost pressures for the foreseeable future. On the plus side, the group has been able to pass these increases through to customers. It raised Kraftliner costs in Europe by €150 per tonne during the year, while recycled containerboard was up €100 per tonne. Increases of €60 for both were announced in December last year and will be implemented this month for the most part.

Performance diverged between the group’s European and American businesses, with the latter impacted by negative currency movements and “adverse natural events”. However, the American businesses account for a little over a quarter of the group’s revenues, so the update was largely welcomed. Analysts at Investec are forecasting adjusted pre tax profit of €729m in 2018, giving EPS of 232¢ (2017: €618m, 200¢).

SMURFIT KAPPA (SKG)  
ORD PRICE:2,454pMARKET VALUE:£ 5.81bn
TOUCH:2454-2458p12-MONTH HIGH:2,662pLOW: 1946p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.2%PE RATIO:16
NET ASSET VALUE:106p*NET DEBT:105%
Year to 31 DecTurnover (€bn)Pre-tax profit (€m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (¢)
20137.9629482.240.8
20148.0837810655.4
20158.1159917368.0
20168.1665418979.6
20178.5657617787.6
% change+5-12-6+10
Ex-div:12 Apr   
Payment:11 May   
*Includes intangible assets of €2.43bn, or 102p a share,£1 = €1.13