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Petropavlovsk: past presence

The Russian gold miner continues to face debt and cost pressures
April 3, 2018

Petropavlovsk (POG) no longer employs the men whose Russified forenames adorn the door to the plc's headquarters. Last year’s boardroom coup (and subsequent shake-up) saw to that. Yet the founders’ bequest doesn’t end there; as full-year results remind us, the precious metals miner is still heavily indebted, strapped with an awkward holding in a Hong Kong-listed iron ore miner, and (after everyone’s been paid) a low-margin miner.

IC TIP: Hold at 7p

In 2017, the latter trait was exacerbated by the appreciation of the rouble and $88m (£62m) of capital expenditure, which brought all-in sustaining costs to $963 an ounce. That was 19 per cent up on 2016, and would have had a more pronounced effect on the profit statement had production not climbed 10 per cent, and working capital significantly unwound.

Watching from the sidelines – and now providing a running commentary on every announcement from the gold miner – is Kenges Rakishev, who picked up at 22 per cent stake in the company at the end of the period. His reaction to these numbers? A dash of optimism, hopes for growth and a note of cynicism that the bottom line was artificially boosted by events outside the company’s control.

On average, analysts expect adjusted pre-tax profits of $100m and EPS of 1.9¢ in 2018, compared with estimates of $73m and 1.4¢ last year.

PETROPAVLOVSK (POG)  
ORD PRICE:7pMARKET VALUE:£233m
TOUCH:7-7.1p12-MONTH HIGH:9pLOW: 6.3p
DIVIDEND YIELD:NILPE RATIO:8
NET ASSET VALUE:17.3¢NET DEBT:101%
Year to 31 DecTurnover ($bn)   Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (¢)
20131.20-523-259.0nil
20140.86-14.3-94.0nil
20150.60-142-7.0nil
20160.5527.01.0nil
20170.5960.51.3nil
% change+7+124+26-
Ex-div:na   
Payment:na   
£1=$1.41