It’s not possible to generalise about real estate investment trusts (REITs) because such companies cover a broad church ranging from self-storage, through retail and office landlords to urban logistics. The latter sector is expected to outperform in the coming year, mainly because there remains a shortage of suitable storage space both in the big box category and for last mile delivery facilities.
Primary healthcare landlords are also expected to perform well, partly because of a continued need to build healthcare centres which are cheaper to operate and which relieve some of the pressure on conventional A&E departments. The main operators are also expected to benefit from the quality of the revenue stream, with most rents paid for indirectly by the government.
The outlook for office landlords is likely to be influenced mostly by geography. Growth in regions such as Manchester, Birmingham and Leeds is expected to be stronger than in more established areas for office space in London, where valuations have been depressed by Brexit. The big unknown factor here is whether or not these depressed valuations are a sign of weakness to come or whether a favourable outcome to the whole situation could lead to some significant revaluations.
One certainty is that progress in maintaining rental income will depend on how the economy performs. The other certainty is that many retail landlords will continue to face headwinds generated in part by a switch in consumer habits from conventional retail to online shopping, and also by the number of retail chains going bust.
That said, the well-run shopping malls will perform better than most, but only for the more hands-on landlords sensitive to changing trends and tenant requirements. The notable exception is the convenience side, where those outlets specialising in non-discretionary items will perform better.
Price/NAV | Div cover | PE | ||||
2019 | 2020 | 2019 | 2020 | 2019 | 2020 | |
ASSURA | 1.01 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 18.8 | 17.7 |
BIG YELLOW | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 20.2 | 18.9 |
BRITISH LAND | 0.62 | 0.65 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 16.2 | 15.9 |
DERWENT LONDON | 0.77 | 0.76 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 26.7 | 29.1 |
GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES | 0.77 | 0.77 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 38.9 | 38.9 |
HAMMERSON | 0.47 | 0.46 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 11.0 | 10.9 |
INTU PROPERTIES | 0.37 | 0.37 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
LAND SECURITIES | 0.62 | 0.62 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 13.8 | 13.8 |
LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 19.8 | 19.4 |
NEWRIVER REIT (REG S) | 0.83 | 0.84 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 9.5 |
PRIMARY HEALTH PROPS. | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 20.4 | 19.3 |
SAFESTORE | 1.25 | 1.18 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 18.6 | 17.1 |
SEGRO | 0.89 | 0.85 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 25.6 | 24.1 |
SHAFTESBURY | 0.82 | 0.80 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 45.3 | 41.7 |
UNITE | 0.97 | 0.91 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 20.6 | 20.2 |
WORKSPACE | 0.73 | 0.71 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 18.6 | 16.6 |
Source Liberum, Bloomberg |
Name | Price (p) | Market cap (£m) | 12-month change (%) | Trailing PE | Forward PE | Dividend Yield (%) | Last IC View |
Assura | 54.1 | 1297.36 | -11.46 | 19.9 | 18.4 | 5.17 | Buy, 55.3p, 22 Nov 2018 |
Big Yellow | 920 | 1533.32 | 9.85 | 22.1 | 20.5 | 3.5 | Hold, 941p, 20 Nov 2018 |
British Land | 563.4 | 5396.99 | -17.8 | 16.3 | 15.9 | 5.42 | Hold, 626.4p, 14 Nov 2018 |
Derwent London | 3002 | 3348.43 | -0.76 | 28 | 27 | 2.05 | Buy, 3,009p, 6 Sep 2018 |
Great Portland Estates | 706 | 1955.05 | 7.9 | 37.6 | 36.5 | 1.69 | Buy, 731.3p, 22 Nov 2018 |
Hammerson | 351.5 | 2693.73 | -30.97 | 11.6 | 11.5 | 7.37 | Hold, 531.8p, 24 Jul 2018 |
Intu Properties | 112.5 | 1524.42 | -51.94 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 12.44 | Sell, 120p, 29 Nov 2018 |
Land Securities | 853.6 | 6329.11 | -15.12 | 14.6 | 14.5 | 5.52 | Hold, 859.8p, 13 Nov 2018 |
Londonmetric Property | 179.7 | 1255.53 | -1.26 | 20.5 | 19.8 | 4.45 | Buy, 186.9p, 28 Nov 2018 |
Newriver Reit | 212 | 644.47 | -29.22 | 10.9 | 10.2 | 10.12 | Buy, 186.9p, 28 Nov 2018 |
Primary Health Properties | 114.6 | 884.4 | 1.18 | 21.7 | 20.3 | 3.66 | Buy, 116p, 25 Jul 2018 |
Safestore | 532.5 | 1118.31 | 8.41 | 18.9 | 17.8 | 2.8 | Hold, 543p, 8 Jan 2019 |
Segro | 623.6 | 6320.2 | 7.74 | 28.1 | 25.6 | 2.71 | Buy, 620.8p, 1 Nov 2018 |
Shaftesbury | 841.5 | 2586.61 | -17.66 | 45.7 | 41.1 | 1.95 | Hold, 917.5p, 27 Nov 2018 |
UK Commercial Property Reit | 87.9 | 1142.18 | -2.33 | 4.19 | n/a | ||
Unite | 863.5 | 2275.45 | 8.21 | 25.3 | 21.9 | 2.88 | Buy, 846p, 25 Jul 2018 |
Workspace | 888.5 | 1602.67 | -9.15 | 21.7 | 19.1 | 3.28 | Buy, 983p, 14 Nov 2018 |