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FTSE350: It remains wise to be selective with Reits

Valuations have been hammered by Brexit, but some ratings might not be justified
January 24, 2019

It’s not possible to generalise about real estate investment trusts (REITs) because such companies cover a broad church ranging from self-storage, through retail and office landlords to urban logistics. The latter sector is expected to outperform in the coming year, mainly because there remains a shortage of suitable storage space both in the big box category and for last mile delivery facilities.

Primary healthcare landlords are also expected to perform well, partly because of a continued need to build healthcare centres which are cheaper to operate and which relieve some of the pressure on conventional A&E departments. The main operators are also expected to benefit from the quality of the revenue stream, with most rents paid for indirectly by the government.

The outlook for office landlords is likely to be influenced mostly by geography. Growth in regions such as Manchester, Birmingham and Leeds is expected to be stronger than in more established areas for office space in London, where valuations have been depressed by Brexit. The big unknown factor here is whether or not these depressed valuations are a sign of weakness to come or whether a favourable outcome to the whole situation could lead to some significant revaluations.

One certainty is that progress in maintaining rental income will depend on how the economy performs. The other certainty is that many retail landlords will continue to face headwinds generated in part by a switch in consumer habits from conventional retail to online shopping, and also by the number of retail chains going bust.

That said, the well-run shopping malls will perform better than most, but only for the more hands-on landlords sensitive to changing trends and tenant requirements. The notable exception is the convenience side, where those outlets specialising in non-discretionary items will perform better.

 

 Price/NAV Div cover PE 
 201920202019202020192020
ASSURA1.011.01.01.118.817.7
BIG YELLOW1.291.261.31.320.218.9
BRITISH LAND0.620.651.01.016.215.9
DERWENT LONDON0.770.761.51.326.729.1
GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES0.770.771.31.238.938.9
HAMMERSON0.470.461.11.111.010.9
INTU PROPERTIES0.370.371.11.17.37.3
LAND SECURITIES0.620.621.21.213.813.8
LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY0.990.981.11.119.819.4
NEWRIVER REIT (REG S)0.830.841.01.010.09.5
PRIMARY HEALTH PROPS.1.081.071.01.020.419.3
SAFESTORE1.251.181.71.718.617.1
SEGRO0.890.851.21.225.624.1
SHAFTESBURY0.820.801.01.045.341.7
UNITE0.970.911.21.220.620.2
WORKSPACE0.730.711.21.218.616.6
Source Liberum, Bloomberg      

 

NamePrice (p)Market cap (£m)12-month change (%)Trailing PEForward PEDividend Yield (%)Last IC View
Assura54.11297.36-11.4619.918.45.17Buy, 55.3p, 22 Nov 2018
Big Yellow 9201533.329.8522.120.53.5Hold, 941p, 20 Nov 2018
British Land563.45396.99-17.816.315.95.42Hold, 626.4p, 14 Nov 2018
Derwent London30023348.43-0.7628272.05Buy, 3,009p, 6 Sep 2018
Great Portland Estates7061955.057.937.636.51.69Buy, 731.3p, 22 Nov 2018
Hammerson351.52693.73-30.9711.611.57.37Hold, 531.8p, 24 Jul 2018
Intu Properties112.51524.42-51.947.77.612.44Sell, 120p, 29 Nov 2018
Land Securities 853.66329.11-15.1214.614.55.52Hold, 859.8p, 13 Nov 2018
Londonmetric Property179.71255.53-1.2620.519.84.45Buy, 186.9p, 28 Nov 2018
Newriver Reit 212644.47-29.2210.910.210.12Buy, 186.9p, 28 Nov 2018
Primary Health Properties114.6884.41.1821.720.33.66Buy, 116p, 25 Jul 2018
Safestore 532.51118.318.4118.917.82.8Hold, 543p, 8 Jan 2019
Segro623.66320.27.7428.125.62.71Buy, 620.8p, 1 Nov 2018
Shaftesbury841.52586.61-17.6645.741.11.95Hold, 917.5p, 27 Nov 2018
UK Commercial Property Reit87.91142.18-2.33  4.19n/a
Unite 863.52275.458.2125.321.92.88Buy, 846p, 25 Jul 2018
Workspace 888.51602.67-9.1521.719.13.28Buy, 983p, 14 Nov 2018